B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.29-2.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -51.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BGS — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-11
CEO — Kenneth C. Keller: The CEO retired with a named internal successor (current Board member) appointed immediately, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Changes to the dividend policy will show how B&G Foods is handling cash and investments.
Worry ifB&G Foods announces a further reduction in the dividend rate in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifB&G Foods maintains or increases the dividend rate in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This offering will help pay off old debt. Better debt management can lead to more financial stability.
Supportive ifB&G Foods successfully redeems all $509.3 million of the 5.25% senior notes due 2027.
Worry ifB&G Foods fails to redeem the 5.25% senior notes as planned.
Why it matters: Issuing senior notes can change how money is spent. This can affect financial stability.
Watch forGood financial results or smart investments come after issuing the notes.
Also watch forPoor financial results or failure to use the money well.
Why it matters: B&G's senior notes change its capital structure. This impacts its future financial options.
Worry ifCredit rating agencies cut B&G Foods' rating after they issue senior notes.
Less concerning ifNo change in credit ratings or positive market reception of the senior notes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $352 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,174 loss on $10,000 · 41.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows commitment to returning value to shareholders. Any cut would raise concerns.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.19 for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifThe dividend was cut below $0.19. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: This shows ongoing problems with making money after a drop in Q1 adjusted EBITDA.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is below $68 million. This shows pressure on profit margins.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is above $68 million. This shows a recovery in making money.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifA dividend increase is good news. Confirming the current dividend is also important.
Worry ifA dividend cut or suspension is also important news.
Why it matters: Issuing senior notes may change how money is spent and affect financial health.
Watch forPositive cash flow or investment news after the $475 million senior notes issuance.
Also watch forHigher debt levels without revenue growth after the notes issuance.
Why it matters: New M&A deals could signal growth and help improve the company's position in the market.
Supportive ifA new deal or partnership can help gain market share.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Successful integration would help growth. It would also balance losses from selling parts of the business.
Supportive ifManagement says College Inn and Kitchen Basics will help sales in the next quarters.
Worry ifIntegration issues lead to lower than expected sales from the new brands.
Why it matters: The new senior notes will affect interest costs. This shows how B&G Foods manages money.
Worry ifNet interest expense increases by more than $2.7 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest expense remains stable or decreases in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend can show how healthy the finances are. They also show what management cares about.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut or suspension in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifDividend per share remains stable or increases in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: New M&A deals could signal growth and improve B&G Foods' market position.
Supportive ifA press release says a merger or acquisition is done. This will improve products.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements or failed negotiations in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in net sales shows that the company is reshaping its portfolio. This suggests market recovery.
Supportive ifBase business net sales increase year over year by more than 2.8% in Q3.
Worry ifBase business net sales decline or grow less than 2.8% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in interest expense show how well the company manages its money and debt.
Worry ifNet interest expense decreases from $38.5 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest expense goes up past $38.5 million in the next quarters.
Why it matters: More M&A can show growth opportunities. It may also indicate changes in B&G Foods' portfolio.
Supportive ifB&G Foods announces a new acquisition or partnership within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements are made within the next quarter.
Why it matters: The new CEO's identity and vision can change company strategy. This affects investor confidence.
Watch forB&G Foods announces the new CEO's identity and strategic plans within the next month.
Also watch forNo news is shared about the new CEO or company direction during this time.