B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.47-3.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -65.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers
BGS — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-11
CEO — Kenneth C. Keller: The CEO retired with a named internal successor (current Board member) appointed immediately, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The new notes carry an 11% rate. Q2 interest expense rose $2.7 million from a year earlier, adding pressure to earnings.
Worry ifQ3 net interest expense rises above $38.5 million, the Q2 2026 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest expense falls below $38.5 million, the Q2 2026 level.
Why it matters: B&G kept its adjusted EBITDA range at $275 million to $290 million. First-half adjusted EBITDA was $118 million.
Watch forQ3 results keep full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance at $275 million to $290 million. Year-to-date results are on pace for that range.
Also watch forB&G cuts the $275 million to $290 million range, or Q3 results leave the company well short of its lower end.
Why it matters: B&G said it plans to use money from the B&M and Joan of Arc sale to repay debt. A reported debt cut would confirm progress on that plan.
Supportive ifA company filing or earnings release says sale proceeds repaid long-term debt. It gives the amount repaid.
Worry ifThe next results show no debt repayment tied to the sale, or long-term debt rises from its prior level.
Why it matters: B&G cut its annual dividend rate from $0.76 to $0.38 per share in July. A further cut would show more pressure on cash use.
Worry ifB&G announces an annual dividend rate below $0.38 per share, or suspends the dividend.
Less concerning ifB&G keeps the annual dividend rate at $0.38 per share or raises it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $401 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,387 loss on $10,000 · 63.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Base sales fell 2.9% in Q2, as volume dropped 4.3%. Growth would show the core brands are gaining ground.
Supportive ifOn the November 10 earnings call, Q3 base sales rise year over year and volume is flat or higher.
Worry ifQ3 base sales fall year over year again, with volume down more than 4%.