B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.29-2.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BGS
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.29, BGS's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 39× p/e (3.1× the 13× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-52% near-term growth vs our ~4% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $6.84 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $4.00–$5.00. Note: our $6.84 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($4.00–$5.00). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $4.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $13.27 | 8.5 | 1.47 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $9.17 | 11.7 | 0.79 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $1.06 | 12.5 | 0.08 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
$4.00 – $5.00 (median $4.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-08-13
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
| $15.09 |
| 0.7 |
| 20.40 |
| TTM |
| high |
| triangulated | 12M | $1.02 | 12.5 | 0.08 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $6.01 | 11.7 | 0.52 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $9.87 | 12.5 | 0.79 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $17.58 | 0.7 | 23.77 | guidance | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $4.53 | 11.7 | 0.39 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $11.08 | 12.5 | 0.88 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $19.75 | 0.7 | 26.69 | guidance | medium |