Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Box, Inc. (BOX)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.55-1.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.74 → 1.74 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BOX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations grows above $140 million | Cash from operations is rising, supporting investments. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $127 million next year | Cash from operations: $70.845M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $140 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 26, 202670,845,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 1, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BOX is a steady-growth software business with a focus on stronger margins, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view remains intact, though recent momentum weakened and the latest quarter missed expectations.
BOX is valued at a premium to peers, and the expectations gap is small, suggesting its valuation broadly reflects the current business setup. The evidence labels that pricing as justified and finds little sign of unusual fragility.
Near term, revenue growth and operating margins have improved, with management reporting progress from Enterprise Advanced adoption and AI platform expansion. Cash flow signals are mixed, momentum has weakened, and the recent earnings miss adds risk; the next guidance update is an important check on execution.
The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth and margin gains continuing while cash generation improves. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while easing rates or steadier results from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BOX has a credible growth-and-margin story, but its premium valuation leaves limited room for execution to falter. The main evidence to watch is guidance, continued operating progress, and cash generation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit per share is expected near $1.56, showing steady profit growth. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $1.55 per share in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $0.09 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.56 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 26, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $1.28 billion | Box grows revenue about 9% a year, hitting $1.28 billion next fiscal year. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.175 billion in FY27 | Revenue: $321.147M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.28 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 26, 2026321,147,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fiscal Second Quarter Financial Highlights All comparisons are against the prior year comparable quarter • Record revenue of $321.1 million, up 9%, or 11% on a constant currency basis.” “• Remaining performance obligations (“RPO”) of $1.7 billion, up 15%, or 17% on a constant currency basis.” Revenue was $301.107 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.80 → $1.74 · observed estimates
$1.38B → $1.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.80 | $1,386,468,710 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.80 | $1,386,468,710 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.80 | $1,384,357,582 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.79 | $1,388,684,405 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.79 | $1,388,684,405 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.79 | $1,388,684,405 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.74 | $1,400,608,782 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.74 | $1,400,608,782 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.74 | $1,400,608,782 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.74 | $1,401,883,448 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.74 | $1,403,317,019 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.