Box, Inc. (BOX)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.19-2.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BOX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BOX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-25
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 25, 2026, Box, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2026. In the press release, the Company also announced that it will hold a conference call on August 25, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. This…
Why it matters: Active share buybacks show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifBox announces share repurchases totaling $100 million or more in Q2 FY27.
Worry ifNo share buybacks were announced in Q2 FY27. This suggests less confidence.
Why it matters: Winning new customers shows that the market likes Box's AI products. It shows growth potential.
Supportive ifNew major customers are now using Box's AI solutions.
Worry ifNo new major customer wins reported in AI solutions.
Why it matters: A margin above 10% means Box is keeping costs low while growing. This shows efficiency.
Supportive ifGAAP operating margin reported at or above 10% for Q3.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin is below 9.5%. This may mean cost problems.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show management believes in the company's value. They want to return cash to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announces more share buybacks in Q3. This shows they are committed to returning cash.
Worry ifNo share buybacks were announced in Q3. This suggests worries about cash flow or spending priorities.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $382 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,630 loss on $10,000 · 36.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows if Box can maintain its momentum in a competitive market. A strong result would confirm ongoing demand for its services.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was $329 million or more. This matches the 9% growth guidance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $320 million. This shows weaker demand or execution problems.
Why it matters: A strong operating margin shows Box can control costs while growing revenue. This helps profits.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating margin is at or above 28%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifThe non-GAAP operating margin is below 28%. This means costs are rising or there are operational problems.
Why it matters: This guidance shows profitability and affects investor feelings. Higher earnings per share can help stock.
Supportive ifNet income per share is $0.11 or more. This shows strong profits.
Worry ifNet income per share falls below $0.09, suggesting weaker earnings.
Why it matters: An increase in the net retention rate indicates strong customer loyalty and growth in existing accounts. This is key for long-term revenue stability.
Supportive ifNet retention rate is above 106%. This shows better customer engagement and upselling.
Worry ifNet retention rate is below 106%. This signals possible customer loss or unhappiness.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if Box can maintain its growth trend. A strong revenue forecast signals continued demand for its services.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is $319 million or more. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is below $310 million. This suggests weak demand.
Why it matters: A decline in cash from operations could signal issues with cash flow management.
Worry ifCash from operations was less than $140 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations reported at or above $140 million.
Why it matters: RPO growth indicates future revenue potential. A strong RPO suggests Box's services are in demand.
Supportive ifRPO is $1.6 billion or more. This shows strong customer commitment.
Worry ifRPO is below $1.5 billion. This indicates possible customer loss.