Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.27-2.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.09 → 2.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BWB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain active share buyback program | The company supports growth through share buybacks and steady dividends. | Intact | Buyback program is suspended or materially reduced | Buyback program active with $12.4M remaining Board extended buyback expiration to Aug 2027; $12.4M authorization remains active. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BWB is a smaller-cap financial company with a value-oriented, execution-dependent multi-year view. The thesis is currently intact, and confidence in the evidence is high, but earnings quality is fragile and recent performance is mixed rather than consistently strong.
The evidence describes BWB as cheap versus peers, while also tagging expectations as stretched, so the valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is 0.23, but the available evidence does not explain its exact meaning; priced-in fragility is rated low because the concern is weak execution quality, not a broader combination of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Near term, recent results show substantive loan and revenue growth, alongside a better efficiency ratio and lower noninterest expense. Credit signals are mixed: nonperforming assets declined, but annualized net loan charge-offs rose, and the company has missed in recent quarters despite a low stated miss risk. Management execution is neutral overall, with the next guidance update an important risk to watch.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued profitable growth, disciplined credit underwriting, and sustained expense control. A guidance cut or a shift toward rate cuts would add pressure, while strong earnings and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, BWB’s growth and efficiency progress keeps the thesis intact, but fragile earnings quality and uneven credit indicators make execution the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.49 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $1.49 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.49 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.49 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20260.49 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Across-the-board revenue growth and well-controlled expenses in the third quarter resulted in a meaningful increase in pre-provision net revenue and an efficiency ratio below 50% for the first time since the first quarter of 2023.” “In addition, we generated robust core deposit growth during the quarter, which supported our organic loan growth engine, improved our overall deposit mix, and helped drive continued net interest margin expansion.” Revenue was $76.645 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Management drives profitable growth and market share | A primary condition in Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Improved progress score above 50%. | Intact | Progress score remains below 47% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes near $70M quarterly | A primary condition in Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=69.9 million USD per quarter. | Broken | quarterly revenue falls below $69.9M | Revenue: $76.645M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=69.9 million USD per quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 202676,645,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Across-the-board revenue growth and well-controlled expenses in the third quarter resulted in a meaningful increase in pre-provision net revenue and an efficiency ratio below 50% for the first time since the first quarter of 2023.” “In addition, we generated robust core deposit growth during the quarter, which supported our organic loan growth engine, improved our overall deposit mix, and helped drive continued net interest margin expansion.” Revenue was $76.645 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.13 → $2.04 · observed estimates
$0.18B → $0.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.13 | $181,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.11 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.11 | $182,133,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.11 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.12 | $184,350,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.12 | $184,350,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.12 | $184,350,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.12 | $184,350,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.12 | $184,350,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.11 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.11 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.11 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.11 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.11 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.11 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.11 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.12 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.10 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.10 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.10 | $188,133,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.10 | $188,133,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.10 | $188,133,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.10 | $188,133,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.10 | $188,133,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.10 | $188,133,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.10 | $188,133,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.09 | $187,900,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.04 | $184,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.