Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$20.27-2.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BWB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -32.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BWB — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-20
Other Events . On October 20, 2026, in its 2026 third quarter earnings release, the Company announced that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend on its 5.875% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A (“Series A Preferred Stock”). The quarterly cash dividend of $36.72 per share, equivalent to $0.3672 per depository share, each representing a 1/100 th interest in a share of the Series A Preferred Stock (Nasdaq: BWBBP), is payable on December 1, 2026, to shareho…
Why it matters: The board extended the buyback plan through August 25, 2027. Repurchases would use capital; the Q3 capital ratio was 9.63%.
Watch forA company filing reports common-share repurchases under the plan. The CET1 ratio stays at or above 9.63%.
Also watch forA company filing reports no repurchases, or the CET1 ratio falls below 9.63%.
Why it matters: Charge-offs rose from 0.04% in Q2 to 0.21% in Q3. A further rise would add to the credit risk shown by higher problem assets than last year.
Worry ifQ4 annualized net loan charge-offs exceed the Q3 rate of 0.21%.
Less concerning ifQ4 annualized net loan charge-offs fall below 0.21%.
Why it matters: The margin rose for three straight quarters. More growth would show that loan pricing and deposit costs still help earnings.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin rises above 3.09%, the Q3 level.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below 3.09%.
Why it matters: Core deposits rose $165.3 million in Q3 after falling in Q2. More core deposits can support loan growth and a better deposit mix.
Supportive ifQ4 core deposits rise from $4.47 billion, with growth above zero.
Worry ifQ4 core deposits fall from $4.47 billion, reversing the Q3 increase.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $248 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,562 loss on $10,000 · 15.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.