Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.85+1.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BWB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -27.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
BWB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-21
R esults of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 21, 2026, Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results as of and for the three months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this item of this Form 8-K, and the related exhibits, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the S…
Why it matters: A decline in this ratio may show weaker capital strength. This can affect investor confidence.
Worry ifCommon Equity Tier 1 ratio falls below 9.61%.
Less concerning ifCommon Equity Tier 1 ratio remains at or above 9.61%.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Bridgewater's market position. A drop signals trouble ahead.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: The financial sector is growing, but if growth slows, it could impact Bridgewater's performance. This is a key signal for the sector's health.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 15%, indicating a slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 15%, showing continued strength.
Why it matters: More charge-offs might mean that asset quality is getting worse. It could also show risk management problems.
Worry ifNet loan charge-offs are over 0.05% each year.
Less concerning ifNet loan charge-offs remain at or below 0.05%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $286 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,562 loss on $10,000 · 15.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase in nonperforming assets may show lower asset quality. This raises worries about credit risk and how well management is doing.
Worry ifNonperforming assets make up more than 0.40% of total assets.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets drop or stay below 0.40%.
Why it matters: A continued drop in deposits could indicate weakening customer confidence and affect liquidity. This would be a red flag for future growth.
Worry ifTotal deposits decrease more than the current $40.7 million from Q2.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits increase or stabilize from Q2 levels.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin shows possible problems with making money and loan prices. This could hurt earnings and investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin falls below 3.07%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest margin stays above or improves from 3.07%.
Why it matters: Active buybacks could signal management's confidence in the stock and support share price.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks in Q3.
Worry ifNo share buyback activity announced in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in core deposits may show that customers are losing confidence. This could hurt growth.
Worry ifCore deposits decrease more than 3.5% annualized in Q3.
Less concerning ifCore deposits stabilize or grow in Q3.
Why it matters: Management aims to leverage technology for growth. Updates will show if they are making progress.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about a new technology project or partnership. This aims for growth.
Worry ifNo news or delays in technology projects show a lack of progress.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would show ongoing problems with making money. This could hurt stock performance.
Worry ifQ3 earnings fall below $14.0 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings exceed $14.0 million.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth helps the company gain market share and make more money.
Supportive ifGross loans increase by more than $58.3 million in Q3.
Worry ifGross loans increase by less than $58.3 million in Q3.