Carrier Global (CARR)
NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-07-07
$68.67-2.04%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track CARR free→Carrier Global grows sales about 5% a year with steady profit margins near 11%. The company generates free cash flow around $2 billion yearly. It maintains a strong share buyback plan of about $1.5 billion. Recent earnings beats support its full-year outlook despite some HVAC headwinds.
Sales growth is weak and declining in HVAC and aftermarket segments. Profit margins could compress below 11%. Share repurchases may slow if cash flow weakens. Director share sales raise concerns about confidence.
The price is about 26% above our fair value near $55 and well below the Street median near $75. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth, which aligns with management's guidance. Our view is more cautious on valuation and growth sustainability.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $1.5 billion in FY26
Plan to execute share repurchases totaling approximately $1.5 billion.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 10% in FY26
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $21 billion in FY26
Focus on accelerating growth in the HVAC and aftermarket segments.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue declined from $6.11B in 2025-Q2 to $5.37B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in accelerating growth in HVAC and aftermarket. Despite management's focus, the trajectory shows a decline.
“Carrier expects continued double-digit growth in global commercial HVAC and aftermarket.”
“We remain committed to accelerating growth driven by differentiated products, aftermarket offerings and system solutions.”
Commitment to maintaining the full-year financial outlook for sales and earnings.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $5.37B in 2025-Q4, down from $5.58B in 2025-Q3, showing challenges in maintaining the full-year outlook. Despite reaffirmation, the trajectory indicates a decline.
“We are reaffirming our full-year outlook for revenue and adjusted EPS.”
“Expecting full-year 2025 sales of ~$22 billion and adjusted EPS of ~$2.65.”
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $1 billion over next 12 months
Plan to execute share repurchases totaling approximately $1.5 billion.
“We are maintaining our full-year outlook for sales, adjusted operating margin expansion and adjusted EPS.”