Casey's (CASY)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$756.09-0.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CASY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers
CASY — officer change
Dated 2026-06-08
Director — Stanley J. Sutula III: The Board expanded and appointed Stanley J. Sutula III as a new director.
Why it matters: Higher capex could signal aggressive expansion but may strain cash flow.
Worry ifCapital spending was more than $800 million for fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifCapital spending was less than $800 million for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: New store openings drive growth and expand market reach. They show management's commitment to growth.
Supportive ifAt least 120 new stores are opened by the end of fiscal 2027.
Worry ifFewer than 80 new stores are opened by the end of fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Higher operating costs can hurt profits. It is important to watch this number.
Worry ifOperating costs rose at or below 7%.
Less concerning ifOperating costs rose above 7%.
Why it matters: This range shows if Casey's is hitting its growth target. Strong sales growth supports overall performance.
Supportive ifSame-store sales grew between 3.5% and 4.5%.
Worry ifInside same-store sales growth below 3.5%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $280 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,791 loss on $10,000 · 17.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can boost earnings per share. Active repurchase signals confidence in the company’s value.
Supportive ifThe company bought back shares worth at least $100 million under the new limit.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks happened under the new limit.
Why it matters: Fuel sales help the company make money. Stable sales show good management of fuel operations.
Watch forSame-store gallons sold remain within -1% to +1% year over year.
Also watch forSame-store gallons sold decline more than 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in fuel sales could lower total revenue and profits.
Worry ifFuel same-store gallons sold decline more than 1% for any quarter in fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifFuel same-store gallons sold increase or remain stable.
Why it matters: Fewer openings could signal a slowdown in growth and market expansion.
Worry ifNew store openings reported below 120 for fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifNew store openings reported at or above 120 for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Growth in same-store sales is key for Casey's financial health. It shows how well stores perform over time.
Supportive ifInside same-store sales growth exceeds 5% in any quarter of fiscal 2027.
Worry ifInside same-store sales growth falls below 2% in any quarter of fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is crucial for Casey's growth strategy. It impacts revenue and market presence.
Supportive ifCasey's opens at least 120 new stores in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifCasey's opens fewer than 80 new stores in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: EBITDA growth shows good business performance and cash flow. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifEBITDA growth exceeds 10% in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifEBITDA growth falls below 8% in fiscal 2027.