Casey's (CASY)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$689.53+2.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CASY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers
CASY — officer change
Dated 2026-06-08
Director — Stanley J. Sutula III: The Board expanded and appointed Stanley J. Sutula III as a new director.
Why it matters: New stores are a stated growth lever. Casey’s set a goal of at least 120 openings this year.
Worry ifA company update lowers the fiscal 2027 opening goal to below 120 stores. Or it reports a pace too slow to reach 120 by April 30, 2027.
Less concerning ifCompany updates show a pace of at least 120 store openings by April 30, 2027.
Why it matters: First-quarter inside sales grew 3.2%, within the fiscal 2027 goal. The December report can show whether growth holds.
Supportive ifIn the December 8 report, inside same-store sales are 2% to 5%. Inside margin is above 42%.
Worry ifInside same-store sales fall below 2%, or inside margin is 42% or less.
Why it matters: Casey’s fiscal 2027 plan calls for EBITDA growth of 8% to 10%. A result below 8% would miss its low end.
Worry ifAt the December 8 report, year-to-date EBITDA growth is below 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifYear-to-date EBITDA growth is at least 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Casey’s fuel plan allows same-store gallons to range from down 1% to up 1%. A deeper drop would miss that range.
Worry ifA reported fiscal 2027 quarter shows same-store fuel gallons down more than 1% year over year.
Less concerning ifSame-store fuel gallons are down 1% or less, or show growth.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $298 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,617 loss on $10,000 · 36.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.