Casey's (CASY)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-07-07
$801.99-0.64%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading CASY? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track CASY free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading CASY? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track CASY free→QuarterlyIQ Insights · CASY
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $801.99. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $802 the market pays 42× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 34× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $643 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $695–$1,069. Note: our $643 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($695–$1,069). Even the durable-growth case — current growth held at sustainable margins — values it at about $780, at or below today's price, so you're paying beyond even the growth case. Not investment advice.
$695.00 – $1069.00 (median $900.00) · 21 analysts · as of 2026-06-25
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 289% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 32.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $11.03/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $900.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $759.04 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $683.03 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $213.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $526.39 | 16.9 | 34.14 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $394.14 | 20.3 | 19.38 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $368.87 | 19.3 | 19.16 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $801.99 | 1.7 | 471.55 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $740.68 | 38.7 | 19.16 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $147.43 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $649.24 | 33.9 | 19.16 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $387.24 | 19.3 | 20.11 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $599.44 | 20.3 | 29.47 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $506.93 | 19.3 | 26.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1065.44 | 1.7 | 626.45 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $1017.89 | 38.7 | 26.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $892.24 | 33.9 | 26.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $792.76 | 20.3 | 38.97 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $610.20 | 19.3 | 31.70 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1282.50 | 1.7 | 754.08 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $1225.27 | 38.7 | 31.70 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $1074.02 | 33.9 | 31.70 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.