Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
Casey's (CASY)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$689.53+2.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
23.48 → 23.50 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CASY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex around $600 million in fiscal 2026 | A supporting condition in Casey's's published investment case. The stated target is ~600 million USD. | Intact | capex exceeds $700 million in fiscal 2026 | Capital expenditures: $194.395M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~600 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 8, 2026194,395,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer staples growth business with an expansion-led, durable-premium profile, rather than a turnaround. The multi-year view remains intact, though momentum has weakened and confidence in the evidence is medium.
CASY is valued at a 2.03 premium versus peers, which is expensive relative to them. The expectations gap is small at 0.01, and the premium is described as justified, but model confidence is low.
Near-term results have been strong, with earnings beats in June and September 2026, while store count rose from 2,904 to 2,959 between 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q3. Management continues to target at least 80 store openings and about $600 million in fiscal 2026 capital spending, though both priorities are rated mixed; momentum also fell from 68.6 to 39.7. Near-term miss risk is low, but prior deep misses and recent peer misses are reasons for caution.
The next guidance update is a key near-term test, since a cut would be a meaningful negative. A weakening jobs trend could also raise recession concerns for cyclical businesses, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwether MNSO could support sector momentum. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on store expansion and capital spending staying aligned with management’s plans.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CASY’s strong recent performance and ongoing expansion support an intact long-term thesis, but the expensive peer valuation makes execution and guidance important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Inside same-store sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026 |
| Same-store sales grew over 5.5% in 2026-Q4, beating targets. |
| Intact |
| same-store sales growth falls below 3.5% in fiscal 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company expects inside same-store sales to increase 2% to 5% with an inside margin above 42%.” “The Company expects inside same-store sales to increase 2% to 5% with an inside margin above 42%.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Share repurchase authorization expanded to $1 billion | The company expanded its buyback program to $1 billion, showing strong capital return. | Intact | buyback authorization reduced below $800 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Open at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026 | Casey's keeps opening many new stores, aiming for at least 80 in fiscal 2026. | Intact | store openings fall below 80 in fiscal 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company expects to open at least 120 stores in fiscal 2027 through a mix of M&A and new store construction.” “The Company expects to open at least 120 stores in fiscal 2027 through a mix of M&A and new store construction.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$23.50 → $23.50 · observed estimates
$20.81B → $21.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $23.50 | $20,807,589,780 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $23.58 | $20,751,815,172 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $23.61 | $20,781,537,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $23.61 | $20,781,537,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $23.61 | $20,781,537,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $23.61 | $20,781,537,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $23.61 | $20,781,537,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $23.61 | $20,781,537,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $23.61 | $20,781,537,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $23.64 | $20,736,037,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $23.64 | $20,736,037,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $23.64 | $20,736,037,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $23.64 | $20,736,037,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $23.64 | $20,736,037,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $23.64 | $20,736,011,258 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $23.61 | $20,732,858,059 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $23.61 | $20,732,858,059 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $23.61 | $20,732,858,059 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $23.61 | $20,732,858,059 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $23.61 | $20,732,858,059 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $23.61 | $20,732,858,059 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $23.61 | $20,746,341,392 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $23.61 | $20,746,341,392 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $23.61 | $20,746,341,392 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $23.64 | $20,690,953,853 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $23.64 | $20,690,953,853 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $23.64 | $20,690,953,853 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $23.64 | $20,690,979,989 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $23.64 | $20,690,979,989 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $23.64 | $20,690,979,989 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $23.64 | $20,620,313,322 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $23.64 | $20,601,147,215 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $23.64 | $20,601,147,215 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $23.64 | $20,601,147,215 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $23.64 | $20,601,147,215 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $23.65 | $20,607,101,182 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $23.51 | $20,711,469,320 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $23.48 | $20,889,322,896 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $23.48 | $20,889,322,896 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $23.43 | $20,889,322,896 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $23.43 | $20,889,322,896 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $23.43 | $20,889,322,896 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $23.43 | $20,889,322,896 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $23.43 | $20,889,322,896 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $23.43 | $20,889,322,896 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $23.43 | $20,889,322,896 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $23.48 | $20,928,362,746 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $23.48 | $20,928,362,746 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $23.48 | $20,949,696,079 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $23.48 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $23.45 | $20,949,679,412 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $23.45 | $20,949,679,412 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $23.45 | $20,949,679,412 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $23.45 | $20,949,679,412 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $23.45 | $20,949,679,412 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $23.45 | $20,949,679,412 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $23.45 | $20,949,679,412 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $23.44 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $23.43 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $23.43 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $23.43 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $23.43 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $23.43 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $23.43 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $23.50 | $20,998,068,301 | 13 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.