Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$553.64-6.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
32.42 → 32.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CAT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver long-term value via technology and AI backlog expansion | The company expands its mining tech and AI backlog, boosting long-term value. | Intact | Failure to advance technology initiatives or AI backlog declines | Qualitative: Backlog extends to 2029-2030; $1B capacity investment CAT guides mid-to-high teens 2026 growth; backlogs stretch to 2029-2030; $1B NC investment announced. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CAT is an established industrial business with a recent record of strong financial performance, not a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, though company momentum weakened after fresh earnings and confidence in the evidence is medium.
Valuation is tagged as justified, with CAT at a 1.33-times premium to peers and only a small expectations gap. The valuation model has low confidence, so this points to a modest relative premium rather than a precise reading of what the market assumes.
Near term, the latest quarter showed higher sales and operating profit, with operating margin rising from a year earlier. Management is on track with sales growth and margin priorities, while costs including tariffs remain a pressure; capital deployment through repurchases and dividends is mixed.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given the history of a deep miss and recent peer misses. In the near term, results and guidance from DE, CNH, and OSK could either support or weaken the sector backdrop for CAT.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustaining sales growth and margins while managing cost pressure and sector risk. Recent performance supports an intact view, but momentum has weakened and the evidence remains mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margin stays near 18%. |
| Intact |
| Operating profit margin falls below 15% next year |
Operating margin: 20.38% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=17.7% operating profit margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202620.375205 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Our team’s continued discipline in a dynamic environment, coupled with a growing backlog, positions us for sustained momentum and long-term profitable growth.”” ““The Caterpillar team remained focused on customer success and demonstrated solid operational performance this quarter,” said CEO Joe Creed.” Operating income was $4.214 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Sustain revenue growth near 13% YoY | A primary condition in Caterpillar Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=13% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 13% next year | Revenue growth: 17.26% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=13% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202617.258193 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Valuation remains justified by growth and margins | A supporting condition in Caterpillar Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below 35 or sustained revenue growth above 15%. | Broken | PE remains above 40 with revenue growth below 12% | Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$30.45 → $32.32 · observed estimates
$84.64B → $88.66B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $30.45 | $84,639,474,380 | 26 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $30.45 | $84,639,474,380 | 26 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $30.45 | $84,639,474,380 | 26 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $30.46 | $85,231,391,304 | 18 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $30.45 | $84,639,474,380 | 26 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $30.45 | $84,639,474,380 | 26 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $30.45 | $84,639,474,380 | 26 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $30.46 | $85,231,391,304 | 18 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $30.46 | $85,231,391,304 | 18 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $30.46 | $85,231,391,304 | 18 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $30.45 | $84,976,721,180 | 27 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $30.58 | $85,231,391,304 | 18 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $30.58 | $85,231,391,304 | 18 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $30.58 | $85,231,391,304 | 18 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $31.92 | $86,938,916,252 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $31.97 | $87,025,373,200 | 27 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $31.97 | $87,025,373,200 | 27 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $31.97 | $87,025,373,200 | 27 / 16 |
| 2026-08-11 | $31.97 | $87,025,373,200 | 27 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $31.92 | $86,938,916,252 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $31.92 | $86,938,916,252 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $31.92 | $86,938,916,252 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $31.92 | $86,938,916,252 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $31.92 | $86,938,916,252 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $31.92 | $86,938,916,252 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $31.92 | $86,938,916,252 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $31.92 | $86,938,916,252 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $32.37 | $88,343,575,177 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $32.42 | $88,320,926,699 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $32.42 | $88,320,926,699 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $32.42 | $88,320,926,699 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $32.42 | $88,320,926,699 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $32.42 | $88,320,926,699 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $32.42 | $88,320,926,699 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $32.42 | $88,320,926,699 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $32.42 | $88,320,926,699 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $32.42 | $88,320,926,699 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $32.42 | $88,320,926,699 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $32.42 | $88,321,040,121 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $32.42 | $88,321,040,121 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $32.42 | $88,321,040,121 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $32.42 | $88,321,040,121 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $32.42 | $88,321,034,565 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $32.47 | $88,427,867,899 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $32.44 | $88,427,867,899 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $32.44 | $88,427,867,899 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $32.43 | $88,504,209,406 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $32.43 | $88,504,209,406 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $32.43 | $88,504,209,406 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $32.43 | $88,504,209,406 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $32.43 | $88,504,209,406 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $32.45 | $88,504,209,406 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $32.59 | $88,899,024,551 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $32.59 | $88,899,024,551 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $32.59 | $88,899,024,551 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $32.59 | $88,899,030,106 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $32.59 | $88,899,030,106 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $32.59 | $88,899,030,106 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $32.59 | $88,899,030,106 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $32.59 | $88,899,030,106 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $32.59 | $88,899,137,972 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $32.59 | $88,899,137,972 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $32.59 | $88,899,137,972 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $32.59 | $88,899,137,972 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $32.59 | $88,899,137,972 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $32.65 | $88,899,014,278 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $32.65 | $88,899,014,278 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $32.43 | $88,581,141,216 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $32.27 | $88,533,486,695 | 18 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $32.27 | $88,533,486,695 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $32.27 | $88,533,486,695 | 19 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $32.34 | $88,627,132,464 | 19 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $32.32 | $88,660,693,186 | 19 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 13 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.