Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$553.64-6.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CAT — President transition
Dated 2026-10-15
Group President — Denise C. Johnson: The filing announces the retirement of a senior executive (Group President) with an effective date, which is an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss or shock.
Why it matters: Power Generation sales rose 30% in Q3, mainly from data center engines and turbines. A drop would weaken this growth source.
Worry ifQ4 Power Generation sales are down year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 Power Generation sales grow year over year.
Why it matters: Cash flow reached $4.4 billion in Q2 and Q3. A lower Q4 result would test the stated focus on cash and liquidity.
Worry ifQ4 enterprise operating cash flow is below $4 billion.
Less concerning ifQ4 enterprise operating cash flow is at least $4 billion.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$163 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,447 loss on $10,000 · 44.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.