Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$813.94+1.72%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 48.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CAT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Creation of Revolving Credit Facility On August 27, 2026, Caterpillar Inc. (“Caterpillar”) entered into a Credit Agreement (2026 364-Day Facility) (the “364-Day Credit Agreement”) among Caterpillar, Caterpillar Financial Services Corporation (“Cat Financial”), Caterpillar International Finance Designated Activity Company (“CIF”), Caterpillar International Finance Luxembourg S.à r.l. (“CIF LUX”) and Caterpillar Finance Kabushiki Kaisha (“CFKK” and, to…
Why it matters: The new CFO may change financial strategies that affect profitability and cash flow. Investors will want to see if the transition is smooth.
Watch forCaterpillar shows a better operating profit margin in Q3 2026 than in Q2 2026.
Also watch forCaterpillar shows a lower operating profit margin in Q3 2026 than in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The new CFO may change financial strategies. This could affect future performance and investor sentiment.
Watch forKyle Epley shares new financial strategies. These lead to better performance.
Also watch forThe transition causes uncertainty or problems. This is shown by falling performance metrics.
Why it matters: A higher dividend payout shows trust in cash flow and profits. It also shows a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payout increases beyond $1.63 per share.
Worry ifDividend payout remains at or below $1.63 per share.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with spending plans and shows good operations. Over $4 billion would support this.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $4 billion in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $4 billion in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $386 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,683 loss on $10,000 · 26.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with returns and flexibility. It shows Caterpillar's financial strength.
Supportive ifEnterprise operating cash flow stays above $4 billion. This shows strong cash generation.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is under $3 billion. This raises worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: A maintained or raised dividend signals strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifCaterpillar raises the dividend again or keeps it at $1.63 per share.
Worry ifCaterpillar cuts or suspends the dividend. This shows cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A strong margin shows Caterpillar can control costs while growing. It shows efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating profit margin is over 20%. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifAdjusted operating profit margin falls below 18%. This may mean cost problems.
Why it matters: Sales volume keeps growing. This shows strong demand. It helps Caterpillar's growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 sales volume growth exceeds 20% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 sales volume growth falls below 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Watching profit margin shows how well Caterpillar controls costs. This is important during tough times.
Worry ifOperating profit margin stays above 20% in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating profit margin drops below 18% in Q3.
Why it matters: Dealer inventory levels can predict future sales. More inventory may mean less demand.
Watch forDealer inventory levels rise a lot in Q2 2026.
Also watch forDealer inventory levels decrease or remain flat in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Slower sales growth may show weaker demand in Caterpillar's areas.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth reported below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales growth remains above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: High cash use shows strong management and good returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifCash deployment in Q3 exceeds $2 billion.
Worry ifCash deployment in Q3 is less than $2 billion.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong cash flow and a promise to return value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase in Q3.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q3.