Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Celsius Holdings (CELH)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.04-2.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.73 → 1.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CELH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin stays at or above 50% in FY26 | A primary condition in Celsius Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=50%. | Broken | gross margin falls below 50% in FY26 | Gross margin: 48.13% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=50%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202648.13253 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented consumer staples business, with the multi-year view relying on market expansion and integration of Alani Nu and Rockstar Energy. The thesis is in a watch state: revenue growth and integration are progressing, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and earnings misses raise execution concerns.
CELH is valued at a 2.77-times premium to peers, and the valuation evidence points to an expensive stock. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, but the expectations gap is negative and confidence in that estimate is low.
Near-term, revenue growth has continued as management integrates its portfolio and expands markets, while gross margin has improved only slightly and remains below the stated low-50s target for 2026. Recent earnings misses, a COO transition, and elevated risk leave the near-term execution picture uncertain, although the signal has shifted from cautious to mixed.
The multi-year thesis depends on integration and expansion sustaining revenue growth, and on gross margins improving as integration work and operational initiatives progress. Near-term guidance cuts or further weakening in employment could add pressure, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as KO, PEP, and MNST would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CELH has a credible growth path through portfolio integration and market expansion, but margin progress and a record of recent earnings misses make execution the key test. Its expensive peer valuation leaves limited room for disappointment, and the evidence remains mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Celsius Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is No significant legal penalties or operational restrictions. |
| Under Pressure |
| Material legal penalties or operational restrictions announced |
Qualitative: Active lawsuit filed 2026-11-04 Celsius sued over 'burns body fat' claim; legal challenge poses regulatory and reputational risk. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to positive $139 million in 2026-Q1 | Profit margins improve with gross profit rising to $378M and operating income turning positive at $139M. | Intact | operating income falls below zero in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $75.255M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=139 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202675,255,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $783 million in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Celsius Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=783 million USD. | Intact | revenue falls below $725 million in 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $817.925M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=783 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026817,925,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “As PepsiCo’s energy category captain in the U.S. and with an aligned commercial strategy, we reached an approximate 20.9% dollar share of the U.S. energy drink category in Q1 2026.” “As PepsiCo’s energy category captain in the U.S. and with an aligned commercial strategy, we reached an approximate 20% dollar share of the U.S. energy drink category in Q4 2025.” Revenue was $782.615 million in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.98 → $1.70 · observed estimates
$3.61B → $3.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.98 | $3,614,932,250 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.98 | $3,614,932,250 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.98 | $3,614,932,250 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.98 | $3,605,894,443 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.98 | $3,614,932,250 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.98 | $3,614,932,250 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.97 | $3,601,180,158 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.98 | $3,610,649,580 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.98 | $3,610,649,580 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.97 | $3,607,972,710 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.97 | $3,598,227,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.97 | $3,607,972,710 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.97 | $3,598,227,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.97 | $3,598,227,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.97 | $3,598,229,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.85 | $3,533,151,070 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.85 | $3,533,151,070 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.97 | $3,598,229,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.97 | $3,598,229,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.74 | $3,451,184,820 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.97 | $3,598,229,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.97 | $3,598,229,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.97 | $3,598,229,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.97 | $3,598,229,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.97 | $3,598,229,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.97 | $3,598,229,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.97 | $3,598,229,777 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.74 | $3,427,108,824 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.74 | $3,427,108,824 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.74 | $3,427,108,824 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.74 | $3,427,108,824 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.74 | $3,427,108,824 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.74 | $3,431,113,039 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.74 | $3,431,113,039 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.74 | $3,431,113,039 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.74 | $3,431,113,039 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.75 | $3,433,514,224 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.75 | $3,433,468,391 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.75 | $3,433,468,391 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.75 | $3,433,468,391 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.75 | $3,433,468,391 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.75 | $3,433,468,391 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.75 | $3,433,468,391 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.75 | $3,433,468,391 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.75 | $3,433,468,391 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.73 | $3,434,643,582 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.73 | $3,434,643,582 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.73 | $3,434,645,166 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.72 | $3,434,147,374 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.72 | $3,434,147,374 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.72 | $3,434,147,374 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.72 | $3,434,147,374 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.72 | $3,434,147,374 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.72 | $3,434,147,374 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.72 | $3,434,147,374 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.70 | $3,434,147,374 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.70 | $3,434,147,374 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.70 | $3,436,104,272 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.70 | $3,436,104,272 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.70 | $3,436,104,272 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.70 | $3,436,104,272 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.70 | $3,436,104,272 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.70 | $3,435,745,939 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.70 | $3,434,370,939 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.70 | $3,434,369,355 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.70 | $3,434,369,355 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.70 | $3,434,369,355 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.70 | $3,434,369,355 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.70 | $3,434,369,355 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.70 | $3,433,367,136 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.70 | $3,433,367,136 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.70 | $3,433,367,136 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.70 | $3,433,367,136 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.70 | $3,433,367,136 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.70 | $3,433,367,136 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.70 | $3,433,367,136 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.70 | $3,433,368,303 | 16 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.