Celsius Holdings (CELH)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.66-3.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Gross margin stays at or above 50% in FY26: 48.1% vs 50%.
Celsius Holdings grows revenue strongly, from $265.7M in 2024-Q3 to $783M in 2026-Q1. Profit margins improve with gross profit rising to $378M and operating income turning positive at $139M. The company benefits from new deals and brand momentum. Analysts expect about 15% revenue growth next year.
Legal probes in Texas and rising competition could hurt growth and valuation. The stock trades at a high PE of 41.7 versus peers at 17.5. Operating income progress is mixed and cost pressures may limit margin gains.
The price is about 21% below our fair value near $40, reflecting justified expectations for 15% revenue growth. Our fair value is 19% below the Street median, indicating some caution versus optimistic analyst targets.
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 50% in FY26
Breaks if: Material legal penalties or operational restrictions announced
Breaks if: operating income falls below zero in 2026-Q1
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth bet with a medium confidence level. The current thesis is in a watch state, reflecting concerns over recent performance and management volatility.
The market appears to be pricing in a justified valuation, albeit at a premium compared to peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that investors may not be overly optimistic about future performance.
Management is focused on expanding revenue and improving margins, but recent results show mixed progress. The near-term risk includes a probability of missing earnings estimates, although this risk is relatively low.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on growth priorities and the broader Consumer Staples sector performance. Key triggers include potential guidance cuts or inflationary pressures that could impact demand.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company missed earnings expectations in Q2. Management expects core brand sales to remain weak in Q3. They admitted to a misstep in their product strategy. Alani Nu brand showed strong growth, but overall revenue depends on it. Leadership changes may also hinder growth objectives.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $725 million in 2026-Q1
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CELH's performance will depend on execution and market conditions. Not investment advice.