Celsius Holdings (CELH)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.04-2.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CELH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CELH — COO transition
Dated 2026-08-10
President — Eric Hanson: The President and COO departed the company, triggering severance benefits, indicating a loss of a key executive without an immediate internal promotion or succession plan mentioned.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue reached $817.9 million, up 11%. Higher sales would show continued growth across the larger brand portfolio.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue exceeds $817.9 million and grows year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $817.9 million or falls year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin was 48.1%, well below the prior-year level. Higher margin would show that cost and freight work is offsetting higher input costs.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin is above 48.1% and the company reports gains from freight, supply chain, or product mix work.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 48.1%, or higher aluminum costs and promotions erase the gains.
Why it matters: Fewer Celsius listings reduced distribution points, but sales per point rose 16% from Q1 to Q2. More gains would support the reset.
Supportive ifQ3 Celsius dollars per distribution point rise above Q2. Distribution points stay stable or rise.
Worry ifQ3 dollars per distribution point fall below Q2. Or, distribution points keep falling without more sales per point.
Why it matters: Rockstar retail sales fell 13% year over year in Q2. A smaller drop would signal that the brand is stabilizing after its move into the portfolio.
Supportive ifQ3 Rockstar retail sales decline by less than 13% year over year or turn positive.
Worry ifQ3 Rockstar retail sales fall 13% or more year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $571 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,033 loss on $10,000 · 60.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Celsius brand retail sales fell 2% in Q2, while reported brand revenue fell 11.7%. A return to growth would show the reset is gaining traction.
Supportive ifQ3 Celsius brand retail sales grow year over year, with brand revenue also above its Q3 2025 level.
Worry ifQ3 Celsius brand retail sales remain flat or fall year over year, or brand revenue falls further.