Celsius Holdings (CELH)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.66-3.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CELH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CELH — COO transition
Dated 2026-08-10
President — Eric Hanson: The President and COO departed the company, triggering severance benefits, indicating a loss of a key executive without an immediate internal promotion or succession plan mentioned.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is below this level, it may raise worries. This includes integration efforts and market demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: No repurchases in Q2 may show a change in how they use capital. Starting again would show confidence.
Supportive ifCelsius will announce share repurchases in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Management wants to improve product selection. Success could boost sales and profits.
Watch forManagement says the SKU changes are working and sales are better.
Also watch forManagement reports problems or delays in SKU changes.
Why it matters: More repurchases show trust in the company and a focus on shareholder value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $100 million in 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $100 million in 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$204 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $573 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,335 loss on $10,000 · 63.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Faster growth shows that the brand is strong and fits well with PepsiCo.
Supportive ifAlani Nu sales growth exceeds 55.7% year over year.
Worry ifAlani Nu sales growth drops below 55.7% year over year.
Why it matters: The COO's departure raises worries about leadership. Stability is important for getting things done.
Worry ifCelsius shares a clear plan for new leaders or executive changes.
Less concerning ifNo new leaders are named and no more executives leave.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that people want Celsius products. It also shows good work with Alani Nu and Rockstar.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 130% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth falls below 100% year over year.
Why it matters: A big drop in Celsius brand revenue shows problems in the main business.
Worry ifCelsius brand revenue decreases more than 10% year over year in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifCelsius brand revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Stable or growing Rockstar sales show good brand integration. It also shows recovery from past drops.
Watch forRockstar Energy sales show growth or stabilize in Q2 2026.
Also watch forRockstar Energy sales decline further in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable leadership is important. It helps keep the company's direction and investor trust.
Worry ifAppointment of a new COO or equivalent role within three months.
Less concerning ifThere are no new leaders yet. Executive turnover is still happening.
Why it matters: A higher gross margin shows better cost control. It also means operations are more efficient.
Supportive ifGross margin exceeds 50% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margin remains below 50% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Celsius brand revenue has declined recently. Growth signals recovery and brand strength.
Supportive ifCelsius brand revenue grows year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifCelsius brand revenue continues to decline year over year.