Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cigna (CI)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$305.41+3.37%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
33.47 → 33.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted income from operations per share | Cigna's adjusted income from operations is on track to exceed $30.45 per share. | Intact | falls below 30.45 per share | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Additionally, this outlook includes the impact of expected future share repurchases and anticipated 2026 dividends.” “Additionally, this outlook includes the impact of expected future share repurchases and anticipated 2026 dividends.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large healthcare business with a multi-year view based on growth in adjusted operating income across its businesses. The thesis is intact, with strong recent performance, but progress is mixed at Evernorth and management execution is rated neutral.
CI is described as cheap versus peers, and the model shows a slightly negative expectations gap, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, though confidence in the valuation model is medium.
Near term, results have been strong, and management raised guidance in July; adjusted operating income per share and the Cigna Healthcare segment are tracking toward stated priorities. Evernorth’s revenue grew, but its adjusted operating income declined, while recent history of earnings misses remains a risk despite a low estimated miss probability.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued progress in operating income, especially whether Evernorth can turn revenue growth into income growth. Near term, a guidance reversal would damage management credibility, while weaker employment could raise recession concerns; continued earnings strength and higher guidance at healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CI’s strong recent performance and cheap-versus-peer valuation support an intact long-term thesis, but Evernorth’s income trend and the risk of weaker guidance remain important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Total revenue | A primary condition in Cigna's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.5 billion. | Intact | falls below 4.5 billion | Revenue: $71.668B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.5 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 202671,668,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
SG&A expense ratio | The company is also focused on improving its operating efficiency, as seen in the reduction of its SG&A expense ratio to 4.8%. | Intact | exceeds 4.8% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Cigna Group’s outlook for full year 2026 consolidated adjusted income from operations 1,2 is at least $7.950 billion, or at least $30.25 per share 2 .” “Additionally, this outlook includes the impact of expected future share repurchases and anticipated 2026 dividends.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$33.48 → $33.49 · observed estimates
$296.83B → $299.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $33.48 | $296,834,525,940 | 24 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $33.48 | $296,834,525,940 | 24 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $33.48 | $296,834,525,940 | 24 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $33.48 | $297,064,357,540 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $33.48 | $297,064,357,540 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $33.48 | $297,064,357,540 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $33.48 | $297,064,357,540 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $33.49 | $297,263,757,540 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $33.49 | $297,263,757,540 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $33.51 | $298,231,667,170 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $33.51 | $298,231,667,170 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $33.51 | $298,231,667,170 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $33.47 | $298,715,556,510 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $33.47 | $298,715,556,510 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $33.47 | $298,715,556,510 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $33.50 | $298,950,152,442 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $33.47 | $299,614,848,410 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $33.47 | $299,614,848,410 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $33.47 | $299,614,848,410 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $33.47 | $299,614,848,410 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $33.47 | $299,614,848,410 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $33.47 | $299,614,848,410 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $33.47 | $299,614,848,410 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $33.47 | $299,614,848,410 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $33.47 | $299,614,848,410 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $33.48 | $299,597,634,124 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $33.48 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $33.48 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $33.48 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $33.48 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $33.48 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $33.48 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $33.48 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $33.45 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $33.45 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $33.45 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $33.45 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $33.45 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $33.45 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $33.45 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $33.45 | $299,291,125,183 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $33.45 | $299,400,617,359 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $33.43 | $299,586,910,330 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $33.43 | $299,586,910,330 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $33.43 | $299,586,910,330 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $33.43 | $299,586,910,330 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $33.43 | $299,586,910,330 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $33.43 | $299,587,629,080 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $33.42 | $299,416,785,330 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $33.47 | $299,732,403,793 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $33.47 | $299,732,403,793 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $33.47 | $299,732,403,793 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $33.47 | $299,732,403,793 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $33.47 | $299,724,778,793 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $33.48 | $299,895,066,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $33.48 | $299,896,691,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $33.48 | $299,896,691,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $33.48 | $299,896,691,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $33.48 | $299,896,691,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $33.48 | $299,896,691,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $33.48 | $299,896,691,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $33.48 | $299,896,691,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $33.48 | $299,896,691,293 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $33.49 | $299,704,015,393 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $33.49 | $299,704,015,393 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $33.49 | $299,704,015,393 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $33.49 | $299,704,015,393 | 15 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.