Cigna (CI)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-05
$301.48-1.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CI — officer change
Dated 2026-10-09
Director — Donna F. Zarcone: The filing announces the planned retirement of a board director, which is a routine governance event and not the loss of a senior executive officer.
Why it matters: Cigna tied the plan to lower costs and better performance. Measured savings would help test whether the effort is working.
Supportive ifIn a later quarterly update, Cigna names savings or lower costs tied to the $3 billion plan.
Worry ifA later update reports no measured savings, higher costs, or a delay in the plan.
Why it matters: Evernorth revenue grew 6% in Q2, but income fell 2%. Higher Q3 income would show that revenue growth is reaching earnings.
Supportive ifQ3 Evernorth pre-tax income is above $1.696 billion, its Q3 2025 level.
Worry ifQ3 Evernorth pre-tax income is below $1.466 billion, its Q2 2026 level.
Why it matters: Cigna plans to leave this medical business on Jan. 1. Clear customer and cost updates can show how smoothly the exit is going.
Watch forCigna confirms the exit took effect on Jan. 1, 2027, with no delay and no added exit costs reported.
Also watch forCigna reports a delayed exit, added costs, or a material change to its Jan. 1, 2027 plan.
Why it matters: Cigna Healthcare made $1.276 billion in Q2, up 17% year over year. A strong Q3 result would support its 2026 income target.
Supportive ifOn the Nov. 5 earnings call, Cigna reports Q3 Cigna Healthcare pre-tax income above $1.14 billion, the Q2 2025 level.
Worry ifQ3 Cigna Healthcare pre-tax income is $1.14 billion or less. Or the company cuts its 2026 segment target below $4.55 billion.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $270 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,281 loss on $10,000 · 12.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The medical care ratio was 84.5% in Q2, near the top of its full-year range. A higher ratio could pressure health plan earnings.
Worry ifQ3 Cigna Healthcare MCR is above 84.7%, the top of the 2026 outlook range.
Less concerning ifQ3 MCR is at or below 84.7%, and the company keeps its full-year range at 83.7% to 84.7%.