Cigna (CI)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$282.52-1.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
CI — CEO transition
Dated 2026-03-03
CEO — David M. Cordani: Mr. David M. Cordani is retiring as CEO and Mr. Brian C. Evanko will succeed him.
Why it matters: The HCSC deal greatly affects revenue. Knowing its impact is important for future earnings.
Watch forCigna Healthcare revenues show growth of at least 8% excluding the HCSC impact.
Also watch forCigna Healthcare revenues decline or show less than 8% growth excluding the HCSC impact.
Why it matters: This part is important for Cigna's growth. Good results show strong management and growth.
Supportive ifEarnings from Evernorth Health Services exceed $1.7 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEarnings from Evernorth Health Services fall below $1.5 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This metric shows if Cigna is on track to meet its growth target for the year.
Supportive ifCigna reports adjusted income from operations of at least $7.78 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifCigna's adjusted income from operations falls below $7.50 per share for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This is a key target for 2026. Meeting it shows strong financial health and growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted income from operations reaches or exceeds $30.45 per share in Q3 or Q4 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted income from operations falls below $30.35 per share in Q3 or Q4 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $270 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,141 loss on $10,000 · 21.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New leadership can bring changes that impact Cigna's direction and performance. Watching for initiatives helps gauge future growth.
Watch forCigna announced a new plan. It will improve their services and market position.
Also watch forNo major strategic plans were announced by the new CEO in the next few months.
Why it matters: Customer growth is crucial for Cigna's revenue. A decline could indicate deeper issues in customer retention.
Watch forTotal customer relationships rise from 182.8 million as of June 30, 2026.
Also watch forTotal customer relationships fall from 182.8 million as of June 30, 2026.
Why it matters: A low SG&A expense ratio shows good cost control and efficient operations.
Supportive ifSG&A expense ratio stays below 4.8%.
Worry ifSG&A expense ratio rises above 4.8%.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value. They can raise earnings per share.
Supportive ifCigna announces at least $250 million in share repurchases in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchase announcements are made in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for Cigna's overall financial health. A 5% increase shows strong demand for its services.
Supportive ifTotal revenues for Q2 2026 reported to increase by at least 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifTotal revenues for Q2 2026 reported to increase less than 5% YoY.
Why it matters: The Medical Care Ratio shows how well Cigna controls its healthcare costs. This affects profits.
Worry ifCigna Healthcare's Medical Care Ratio is 83.7% or better in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCigna Healthcare's Medical Care Ratio worsens to 85.0% or higher in Q3 2026.