Ciena (CIEN)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-07-07
$418.94-3.43%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Ciena's revenue grew 40% year over year in Q2 2026. The company raised revenue guidance to about $6.3 billion for fiscal 2026. Gross margin is expected near 43% next quarter. The backlog supports multi-year growth.
Recent guidance cuts and a 33% stock drop show risks. Operating margin is below target at 13.3%. Concerns about order backlog could hurt growth.
The price is about 44% above our fair value near $291. Analysts expect 47% revenue growth. Our fair value is well below the Street median of $519.
Breaks if: Backlog shrinks significantly or fails to support growth
Ciena aims to increase its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026, reflecting confidence in growth.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.07 billion in 2025-Q1 to $1.57 billion in 2026-Q2, showing strong growth. The trajectory aligns with management's increased guidance, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Raising revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 to $6.3 billion plus or minus $100 million.”
“Raising revenue guidance range for fiscal year 2026 to $5.9 billion to $6.3 billion.”
“Providing guidance for revenue in the range of $5.7 billion to $6.1 billion for fiscal year 2026.”
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 40% in FY26
Ciena is committed to maintaining its gross margin guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin was 43.8% in 2026-Q1, aligning with the guidance range. The consistent margin performance indicates management is delivering on this priority.
“Adjusted (non-GAAP) gross margin between 43.5% and 44.5% for fiscal year 2026.”
“Adjusted (non-GAAP) gross margin of 43% plus or minus 1% for fiscal year 2026.”
“Adjusted (non-GAAP) gross margin between 42% to 43% for fiscal fourth quarter 2025.”
Breaks if: Operating margin stays below 13% in FY26
Ciena aims to achieve its operating margin guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating margin was 13.3% in 2026-Q1, below the guidance range. This indicates limited progress towards achieving the stated operating margin target.
“Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating margin between 17.5% and 19.5% for fiscal year 2026.”
“Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating margin of 17% plus or minus 1% for fiscal year 2026.”
“Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating margin between 15.5% and 16.5% for fiscal first quarter 2026.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $5.9 billion in FY26
Ciena aims to increase its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026, reflecting confidence in growth.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.07 billion in 2025-Q1 to $1.57 billion in 2026-Q2, showing strong growth. The trajectory aligns with management's increased guidance, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Raising revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 to $6.3 billion plus or minus $100 million.”
“Raising revenue guidance range for fiscal year 2026 to $5.9 billion to $6.3 billion.”
“Providing guidance for revenue in the range of $5.7 billion to $6.1 billion for fiscal year 2026.”