Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$32.46-2.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.67 → 3.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CNOB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS grows to at least $3.28 in FY26 | ConnectOne Bancorp grows earnings steadily with EPS near $3.28 in 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $3.28 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.59 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.28 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20260.59 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking growth thesis, with recent financial performance strong and management execution stable. The multi-year view is intact, but confidence is medium and the latest valuation change means expectations matter more.
CNOB is tagged as stretched, and its valuation rose notably in the recent period. At the same time, the evidence describes it as cheap versus peers, so the gap between peer comparisons and the stretched tag is a key uncertainty. Fragility is rated low, rather than showing a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near-term results have been strong, with earnings beats in the latest two reported events. Loan and client-deposit growth remained substantive in the latest quarter, while net interest margin continued to improve; expenses were lower year over year but flat from the prior quarter. Near-term risk is rated quiet, though a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative and the company has a history of a deep miss.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued loan and deposit growth, further margin progress, and expense control. A guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength among financial-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. The evidence gives limited detail on longer-term credit quality, so that part of the multi-year view is less clear.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CNOB’s thesis is supported by recent operating progress, but its stretched tag and sensitivity to rates and guidance leave important execution risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The bank improves profit margins by raising loan yields and cutting costs. |
| Intact |
| net interest margin fails to improve over next 4 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -18% in next year | A supporting condition in ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline >= -18% YoY. | Intact | revenue decline exceeds -18% YoY in FY26 | Revenue: $200.141M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline >= -18% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 2026200,141,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.64 → $3.73 · observed estimates
$0.53B → $0.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.64 | $525,804,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.63 | $524,664,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.63 | $524,664,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.64 | $527,384,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.64 | $527,384,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.64 | $527,430,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.67 | $524,222,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.67 | $530,319,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.67 | $530,319,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.67 | $524,922,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.67 | $524,922,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.67 | $524,922,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.67 | $524,922,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.67 | $524,922,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.67 | $524,922,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.67 | $531,019,599 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.67 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.64 | $531,499,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.68 | $529,639,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.68 | $529,639,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.68 | $529,639,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.74 | $531,039,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.74 | $531,039,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.74 | $531,039,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.74 | $531,039,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.74 | $531,039,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.74 | $531,039,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.74 | $531,039,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.74 | $531,039,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.74 | $531,039,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.73 | $530,750,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.73 | $530,750,000 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.