ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$32.46-2.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CNOB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -27.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CNOB — President transition
Dated 2026-05-20
President — Elizabeth Magennis: Ms. Elizabeth Magennis was promoted to President of the Registrant.
Why it matters: Management plans to book sale costs in Q4. Costs above that range would reduce the near-term gain from the deal.
Worry ifQ4 results show loan-sale transaction costs above $8 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 results show transaction costs of $7–8 million or less.
Why it matters: Jobs and price data can affect loan demand and deposit costs. The sector's growth trend has also been easing.
Watch forThe November 6 jobs report and November 10 CPI both show lower readings than their prior releases.
Also watch forBoth reports show higher readings than their prior releases.
Why it matters: The margin rose for a seventh straight quarter and reached 3.44%. A reversal could slow core income growth.
Worry ifThe next reported net interest margin stays at or above 3.44%.
Less concerning ifThe next reported net interest margin falls below 3.42%.
Why it matters: Q2 charge-offs rose after losses on New York rent-stabilized loans. A lower rate would show that credit pressure eased.
Supportive ifA later quarter shows an annualized net loan charge-off rate under 0.56%.
Worry ifThe rate stays at or above 0.56%, or new rent-stabilized loan losses are reported.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $224 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,243 loss on $10,000 · 12.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sale cuts CRE and rent-stabilized loan exposure. It also adds cash for securities or to reduce wholesale funding.
Supportive ifThe company confirms the sale closed. CRE concentration is near 397%, and rent-stabilized loans are near 2% of total loans.
Worry ifThe sale does not close, or the final sale leaves CRE concentration well above 397%.