CNX Resources (CNX)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.49-0.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
CNX grew revenue from $82M to $787M in one year. Net income rose from a loss to $348M. Free cash flow is expected near $538M in 2026. The company is buying back shares and cutting costs.
Revenue is expected to fall about 18% next year. The sector faces headwinds and CNX's quality is fragile. The recent stock drop shows investor worries.
The price is about 24% below our fair value near $43. Analysts expect revenue to drop about 18%. Our view agrees with this cautious outlook.
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $600M in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $500M in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity within the energy sector. The current thesis state is insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history, despite some positive earnings surprises.
The market appears to price in a cheap valuation compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. However, the fragility in earnings quality and the turbulent sector context suggest that investors are cautious.
Management has shown a mixed ability to increase revenue, with recent declines in Q2 2026 after strong growth earlier in the year. Net income and cash from operations have improved, but recent results indicate some volatility.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including inflation trends and the performance of sector leaders like COP, EOG, and OXY. Additionally, any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment and estimates.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Sustain and grow cash flow from operating activities to support capital allocation and financial flexibility.
Management has stated enhancing cash from operations in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operating activities rose from $233.8M in 2025-Q3 to $297.0M in 2025-Q4, then was $279.5M in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering with some fluctuations but generally stable and strong cash flow generation.
“Cash from Operating Activities $279.5M in Q2 2026”
“Cash from Operating Activities $277.5M in Q1 2026”
“Cash from Operating Activities $297.0M in Q4 2025”
“Cash from Operating Activities $233.8M in Q3 2025”
Breaks if: Net income falls below $0 in next 4 quarters
Enhance profitability as reflected in net income growth and earnings per share improvements.
Management stated net income improvement as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net income rose from $196.3M in 2025-Q4 to $348.1M in 2026-Q1, with diluted EPS increasing from $1.28 to $2.18 over the same period. The trajectory shows delivering on profitability improvement, though net income declined to $202.9M in 2026-Q2.
“Net Income $202.9M and Diluted EPS $1.32 in Q2 2026”
“Net Income $348.1M and Diluted EPS $2.18 in Q1 2026”
“Net Income $196.3M and Diluted EPS $1.28 in Q4 2025”
“Net Income $202.1M and Diluted EPS $1.21 in Q3 2025”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.2B in FY26
Focus on growing revenue through natural gas, NGL, and oil sales, supported by hedging strategies and production volumes.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue increased from $583.8M in 2025-Q3 to $786.7M in 2026-Q1, then declined to $618.5M in 2026-Q2. Management's focus on revenue growth is persistent, with recent quarters showing mixed delivery: strong growth through early 2026 but a decline in Q2 2026.
“Total Revenue and Other Operating Income $618.5M in Q2 2026, up from $610.5M in Q4 2025”
“Total Revenue and Other Operating Income $786.7M in Q1 2026, up from $610.5M in Q4 2025”
“Total Revenue and Other Operating Income $610.5M in Q4 2025, up from $583.8M in Q3 2025”
“Total Revenue and Other Operating Income $583.8M in Q3 2025, up from $482.9M in Q2 2025”
In the next 1 to 3 years, CNX's performance will depend on broader sector dynamics and management's ability to stabilize earnings. Not investment advice.