CNX Resources (CNX)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.49-0.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CNX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -12.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
CNX — debt issuance
Dated 2026-02-18
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Purchase Agreement On February 17, 2026, CNX Resources Corporation (the “Company”) and certain subsidiaries of the Company entered into a purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Wells Fargo Securities, LLC as the representative of the initial purchasers (the “Initial Purchasers”), with respect to a private offering (the “Notes Offering”) by the Company of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.875% senior notes due 2034 (the “Notes”…
Why it matters: Completing this task is key for the 2029 Notes redemption. It affects financial stability.
Supportive ifCNX completes the new notes offering before the March 19, 2026 redemption date.
Worry ifThe new notes offering is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Gains from hedging can greatly affect profit. Strong gains would boost earnings.
Supportive ifHedging gains exceed $45M in Q3 2026.
Worry ifHedging gains fall below $45M in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Completing the redemption would strengthen CNX's balance sheet and reduce debt. This is key for financial stability.
Supportive ifRedemption of 2029 Notes is completed by March 19, 2026.
Worry ifRedemption is canceled or delayed beyond March 19, 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key focus for CNX. A decline would signal ongoing challenges.
Worry ifQ3 revenue shows growth year over year, stabilizing above $618.5M.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue declines year over year below $618.5M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $293 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,492 loss on $10,000 · 24.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The success of the new notes offering will affect CNX's ability to manage its debt.
Watch forThe new notes offering closes well. It funds the tender offer.
Also watch forThe offering fails to close or does not raise sufficient funds for the tender offer.
Why it matters: Keeping net income over $200 million shows the company is still making money. This matters after a drop in Q2 2026.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 stays above $200 million.
Worry ifNet income falls below $200 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a recovery in CNX's financial performance. This is crucial after a decline in Q2 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue growth turns positive compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing this project would make CNX's balance sheet stronger. It would help future plans.
Supportive ifThe Tender Offer is complete with over 84% of the 2029 Notes tendered.
Worry ifLess than 84% of the 2029 Notes were tendered. This shows possible refinancing problems.
Why it matters: Cash from operations is critical for funding growth. A drop could indicate cash flow issues.
Worry ifCash from operations in Q3 2026 reported below $279.5M.
Less concerning ifCash from operations in Q3 2026 exceeds $279.5M.
Why it matters: Higher natural gas prices would improve revenue and margins for CNX. This is vital for profitability.
Supportive ifNatural gas prices consistently exceed $3.50 per Mcf in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNatural gas prices fall below $3.00 per Mcf in Q3 2026.