COST
CostcoNASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, COST has a composite score of 3.9 with a signal label of "mixed." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 77.3 and reflects various factors, including a macro score of 15.5 and a quality score of 80.0. The analysis is provisional and considers potential scenarios such as guidance cuts and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.02
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.90 → $4.91 (+0.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 2 cut, 28 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 61% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
1 priority extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase quarterly dividendcapital allocationmixed65% progress
4/15: “The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend increase from $1.30 to $1.47 per share.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend increase from $1.30 to $1.47 per share, reflecting a commitment to capital allocation strategy. This increase aligns with the company's ongoing focus on returning value to shareholders.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 19%; 252d 18%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −19%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 0.78 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 69/100, drawdown 61/100, beta 78/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 38.2% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase quarterly dividend
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Continue to increase the quarterly dividend as part of capital allocation strategy.
On track →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q2. The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend increase from $1.30 to $1.47 per share, reflecting a commitment to capital allocation strategy. This increase aligns with the company's ongoing focus on returning value to shareholders.
Dividend increased from $1.30 to $1.47 per share65%CEO/CFO:“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend increase from $1.30 to $1.47 per share.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-15Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend increase from $1.30 to $1.47 per share.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
PM Philip Morris International | +5.0 | full | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2024-09-26)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2024-09-26)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1523d agoItem 8.01
Other Events The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Company's common stock and approved a quarterly increase from $1.30 to $1.47 per share, $5.88 on an annualized basis. The dividend was declared on April 15, 2026, and is payable May 15, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 1, 2026.
capital allocationneutralscore 30 - 2026-03-052mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release containing its operating results for the second quarter (twelve weeks) and the first 24 weeks of fiscal 2026, ended February 15, 2026, and sales results for the four weeks ended March 1, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, a copy of the Company's earnings release supplement for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 is attached as Exhibit 99.2.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 15 - 2026-01-213mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Company's common stock of $1.30 per share. The dividend was declared on January 15, 2026, and is payable February 13, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on January 30, 2026.
capital allocationneutralscore 4 - 2025-12-114mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On December 11, 2025, the Company issued a press release containing its operating results for the first quarter (twelve weeks) of fiscal 2026, ended November 23, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, a copy of the Company's earnings release supplement for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 is attached as Exhibit 99.2.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 2 - 2025-08-079mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On August 4, 2025, the Company announced that Russ Miller, Senior Executive Vice President, COO - U.S. and Mexico Operations, will retire effective February 2026. Caton Frates, Executive Vice President, COO Southwest Division, will be appointed Senior Executive Vice President, Warehouse Operations - U.S. and Mexico, effective February 2026. SIGNATU…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.