Costco (COST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-07-08
$947.50-0.29%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track COST free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Staples: fringe margins under pressure (2q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Costco's revenue growth needs to stay above 9% to support its current price. Revenue grew 11.6% year over year, but the latest earnings report missed expectations. It trades at 47× P/E, which is above the 19× peer median. The market is pricing in more growth than expected, making it look expensive. A specific risk is that if Costco cuts guidance, the stock could drop. Peer multiples imply a price about 73% below where it trades.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. COST is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 37 analysts currently covering COST (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for COST in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $947.50. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Staples (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Advances: Achieve consistent revenue growth
Strong results indicate consistent revenue growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $947.50
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $947.50.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Highlights Costco's resilience, supporting revenue growth.
Store closures would severely disrupt operations and revenue.
Competitor's closure decision may impact market share.
Regulatory changes could increase operational costs for Costco.
Concerns about growth engine impact revenue growth objective.
Concerns about growth engine could impact revenue growth.
Advances: Achieve consistent revenue growth
New locations will drive consistent revenue growth.
