Costco (COST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1046.47+2.67%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 52.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
COST — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-14
Other Events The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Company's common stock of $1.47 per share. The dividend was declared on October 14, 2026, and is payable November 13, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on October 30, 2026.
Why it matters: Costco ended FY2026 with 939 warehouses and listed 967 for FY2027. Opening close to that count would support its growth plan.
Supportive ifBy the end of FY2027, Costco reports 967 or more warehouses.
Worry ifBy the end of FY2027, Costco reports fewer than 967 warehouses.
Why it matters: Q4 gross margin fell 11 basis points from a year earlier. The tariff refund added $0.15 per share, so core results matter.
Worry ifQ1 gross margin falls at least 11 basis points year over year, before any one-time refund benefit.
Less concerning ifQ1 gross margin is flat or higher year over year, before any one-time refund benefit.
Why it matters: Costco named consumer spending as a risk. A weak U.S. retail sales report could add pressure to comparable sales.
Worry ifThe November 17 U.S. retail sales report shows a month-over-month decline.
Less concerning ifThe November 17 U.S. retail sales report shows month-over-month growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$70 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $210 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,833 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.