Costco (COST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$915.74-1.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 82.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
COST — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-08
Other Events The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Company's common stock of $1.47 per share. The dividend was declared on July 7, 2026, and is payable August 7, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on July 24, 2026.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is key for funding dividends and growth initiatives.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $3.5 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $3.5 billion.
Why it matters: Strong earnings can boost investor confidence and stock price. It shows the company's growth potential.
Supportive ifQ4 earnings per share exceeds analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ4 earnings per share falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for funding growth and dividends. It indicates financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations improves to above 50% of revenue.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains below 50% of revenue.
Why it matters: Consistent revenue growth shows Costco's ability to attract customers and compete. Weak growth raises concerns.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 14.4% year over year in Q4.
Worry ifRevenue growth is less than 14.4% year over year in Q4.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$79 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $224 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,657 loss on $10,000 · 16.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A positive shift in sector growth could boost Costco's performance and outlook.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive after being in a declining phase.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative.
Why it matters: Digital sales growth is crucial for Costco's future. A drop below 20% may indicate slowing momentum.
Worry ifDigital sales growth was less than 20%.
Less concerning ifDigital sales growth was more than 20%.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend shows Costco's commitment to returning cash to shareholders. This signals financial health.
Supportive ifThe board has raised the quarterly dividend to over $1.47 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the quarterly dividend from the current $1.47 per share.
Why it matters: This number shows if Costco's sales growth is slowing. It helps gauge demand strength.
Worry ifQ3 comparable sales growth prints below 8%.
Less concerning ifSales growth is over 8%.
Why it matters: A drop below this level signals potential cash flow issues. It affects capital allocation.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is below $3 billion.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains above $3 billion.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it indicates stronger demand and market position.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reaches or exceeds 10%.
Worry ifRevenue growth slows below 8%.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend show how management views cash flow and profit.
Watch forThe dividend is increased again from $1.47 per share.
Also watch forThe dividend stays the same or goes down.