Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-30 · fmp
Costco (COST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1065.59+1.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
24.95 → 25.03 EPS · FY ending Aug 30, 2028 · 25 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 23 to 25; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain strong cash flow from operations | The company maintains solid cash flow, supporting operations and growth. | Broken | Cash from operations falls below $3 billion per quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a durable, high-quality retailer rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. The multi-year view is intact: recent performance remains strong, and the risk label has moved from moderate to low.
COST is expensive versus peers, and the valuation evidence points to some expectations tied to future optionality, or possible growth opportunities. The model’s confidence in that assessment is low, and the snapshot says the valuation premium is not paired with weak fundamentals or broad market stress.
Near-term results have been strong: latest-quarter net sales grew 11.2% year over year, comparable sales were strong across regions and digital channels, and operating cash flow rose in fiscal 2026. Management is on track with its stated priorities, including sales growth, cash generation, and a higher quarterly dividend; near-term miss risk is low, though the snapshot notes recent misses in the company’s history.
The multi-year thesis depends on consistent revenue and comparable sales growth and continued strong cash flow. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the business outlook, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, COST’s business execution supports an intact long-term thesis, but its expensive valuation raises the importance of sustaining that execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Costco's published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY revenue growth. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year |
Revenue growth: 11.1% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 7, 202611.104276 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase quarterly dividend to at least $1.47 per share | It raises dividends from $1.30 to $1.47 per share, showing strong capital return. | Intact | Dividend is cut or fails to increase to $1.47 by Q3 2026 | Dividend per share: $1.47 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend >= $1.47 per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Jun 3, 20261.47 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$24.95 → $25.03 · observed estimates
$353.54B → $354.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | $24.95 | $353,537,178,383 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $24.95 | $353,537,178,383 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-28 | $24.95 | $353,537,178,383 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $24.94 | $353,300,656,961 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-30 | $24.95 | $353,315,062,069 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-01 | $24.95 | $353,315,062,069 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-02 | $24.95 | $353,370,845,062 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-03 | $24.95 | $353,370,845,062 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-04 | $24.95 | $353,370,845,062 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-05 | $24.95 | $353,370,845,062 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-06 | $24.95 | $353,370,845,062 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-07 | $24.95 | $353,370,845,062 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-08 | $24.94 | $353,327,523,634 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-09 | $25.05 | $353,904,867,804 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-10 | $25.05 | $353,904,867,804 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-11 | $25.05 | $353,904,867,804 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-12 | $25.06 | $353,904,871,375 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-13 | $25.06 | $353,937,546,375 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-14 | $25.06 | $353,824,286,156 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-15 | $25.06 | $353,824,286,156 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-16 | $25.06 | $353,824,272,269 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-17 | $25.06 | $353,824,272,269 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-18 | $25.05 | $354,173,329,860 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-19 | $25.05 | $354,173,329,860 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-20 | $25.04 | $354,585,237,787 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-21 | $25.04 | $354,679,829,860 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-22 | $25.04 | $354,679,829,860 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-10-23 | $25.04 | $354,679,829,860 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-10-24 | $25.04 | $354,679,829,860 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-10-25 | $25.04 | $354,679,829,860 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-10-26 | $25.04 | $354,679,829,860 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-10-27 | $25.04 | $354,679,829,860 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-10-28 | $25.04 | $354,679,829,860 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-10-29 | $25.04 | $354,762,239,189 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-10-30 | $25.03 | $354,762,239,189 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $25.03 | $354,762,239,189 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $25.03 | $354,762,239,189 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $25.03 | $354,762,239,189 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $25.03 | $354,793,499,189 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $25.03 | $354,793,499,189 | 25 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.