Costco (COST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$915.74-1.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COST
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $916 the market pays 45× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 47× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $503 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $1,000–$1,275. Note: our $503 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($1,000–$1,275). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $1,009 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $1113.00 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $550.65 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $616.07 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $185.25 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$1000.00 – $1275.00 (median $1120.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-09-04
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 358% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 44.2 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $11.60/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $152.73 |
| 16.8 |
| 9.08 |
| Mgmt |
| medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $356.59 | 11.7 | 27.94 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $315.27 | 15.9 | 19.81 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $143.47 | 15.8 | 9.08 | ntm analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $563.81 | 0.9 | 660.59 | TTM | medium |
| PEG | 12M | $228.46 | 25.2 | 9.08 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $129.04 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $427.15 | 47.0 | 9.08 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $348.54 | 16.8 | 20.72 | Triangulated | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $210.02 | 16.8 | 12.49 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $476.77 | 15.9 | 29.96 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $435.23 | 15.8 | 27.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $742.95 | 0.9 | 870.48 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $693.07 | 25.2 | 27.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $1295.81 | 47.0 | 27.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $259.70 | 16.8 | 15.44 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $628.15 | 15.9 | 39.48 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $520.77 | 15.8 | 32.96 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $888.97 | 0.9 | 1041.57 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $829.29 | 25.2 | 32.96 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $1550.50 | 47.0 | 32.96 | Analyst | high |