Costco (COST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-07-08
$953.13+0.59%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $953.13. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $948 the market pays 47× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 47× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $547 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $1,000–$1,275. Note: our $547 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($1,000–$1,275). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $1,015 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$1000.00 – $1275.00 (median $1106.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 370% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 42.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $11.12/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $1106.00 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $589.42 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $625.51 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $95.33 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $185.25 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $174.81 | 19.3 | 9.08 | Mgmt | medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $515.58 | 16.9 | 28.70 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $398.20 | 20.1 | 19.81 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $174.81 | 19.3 | 9.08 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $1117.40 | 1.7 | 660.59 | TTM | medium |
| PEG | 12M | $310.62 | 34.2 | 9.08 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $130.17 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $427.67 | 47.1 | 9.08 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $393.01 | 19.3 | 20.41 | Triangulated | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $235.39 | 19.3 | 12.23 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $602.20 | 20.1 | 29.96 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $519.40 | 19.3 | 26.98 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1475.91 | 1.7 | 872.54 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $922.95 | 34.2 | 26.98 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $1270.73 | 47.1 | 26.98 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $287.05 | 19.3 | 14.91 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $793.40 | 20.1 | 39.48 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $622.84 | 19.3 | 32.35 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1769.82 | 1.7 | 1046.30 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $1106.74 | 34.2 | 32.35 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $1523.78 | 47.1 | 32.35 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.