Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Corpay (CPAY)
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$447.00+6.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
31.43 → 31.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CPAY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Corpay delivers meaningful EPS growth, at least 20% in 2026 | A primary condition in Corpay's published investment case. The stated target is >=20% YoY EPS growth. | Intact | EPS growth falls below 20% in FY26 | Diluted EPS growth: 44.76% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY EPS growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 202644.757033 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CPAY is a growth-oriented payments business, with management focused on double-digit organic revenue growth and adjusted earnings growth. Those priorities remain on track, but the long-term thesis is in a watch state because company quality has fallen and recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.
CPAY is valued at a 1.41 premium to peers, and the evidence describes the valuation as expensive. The expectations gap is 0.29, but model confidence is low; the priced-in assessment is unjustified and elevated, reflecting expensive valuation and weak execution quality.
Near-term results may continue to show solid growth: organic revenue growth was 10% in 2026-Q2, and management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS growth guidance to 28%. Management has also repurchased shares and reduced leverage, though recent relative performance is weak and the near-term miss risk is described as low, not absent.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustaining organic growth and delivering the raised earnings guidance. A guidance cut would damage credibility, while rate cuts could weigh on CPAY and the broader Financials sector; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CPAY has a credible growth record, but its expensive valuation and weaker performance versus peers make execution the key test. The thesis remains watchful rather than broken. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““At the midpoint, our updated guidance calls for full-year revenue of $5.35 billion and adjusted net income per diluted share of $28.00, representing growth of 18% and 31%, respectively.”” ““We expect full year 2026 organic revenue growth of 10%, continued tight expense management and our fourth quarter share repurchases to drive meaningful 2026 adjusted earnings per share growth.””
Corpay achieves at least 14% annual revenue growth | A primary condition in Corpay's published investment case. The stated target is >=14% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 14% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 17.86% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=14% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 202617.863929 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stock price remains within 15% above our fair value | A supporting condition in Corpay's published investment case. The stated target is <=15% above our fair value. | Intact | Price rises more than 15% above or falls below fair value by 15% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$30.59 → $31.55 · observed estimates
$5.82B → $5.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $30.59 | $5,820,191,090 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $30.60 | $5,822,418,290 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $30.60 | $5,822,418,290 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $30.60 | $5,822,418,290 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $30.60 | $5,822,418,290 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $30.59 | $5,818,801,300 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $30.59 | $5,818,801,300 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $30.59 | $5,818,801,300 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $30.61 | $5,818,813,600 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $30.59 | $5,818,801,300 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $30.59 | $5,818,801,300 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $30.61 | $5,818,813,600 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $30.59 | $5,818,801,300 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $30.59 | $5,818,801,300 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $30.96 | $5,799,472,642 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $31.10 | $5,781,498,190 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $31.10 | $5,781,498,190 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $30.96 | $5,799,472,642 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $30.96 | $5,799,472,642 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $31.24 | $5,779,737,090 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $30.96 | $5,799,472,642 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $30.96 | $5,799,472,642 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $30.96 | $5,799,472,642 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $30.96 | $5,799,472,642 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $30.96 | $5,799,472,642 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $30.96 | $5,799,472,642 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $30.96 | $5,799,472,642 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $31.23 | $5,779,139,303 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $31.43 | $5,777,943,096 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $31.43 | $5,777,923,434 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $31.43 | $5,777,923,434 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $31.43 | $5,777,923,434 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $31.43 | $5,777,923,434 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $31.43 | $5,777,923,434 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $31.43 | $5,777,923,434 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $31.47 | $5,777,923,434 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $31.47 | $5,777,923,434 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $31.47 | $5,778,217,184 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $31.47 | $5,778,217,184 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $31.47 | $5,778,217,184 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $31.47 | $5,778,217,184 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $31.47 | $5,778,217,184 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $31.47 | $5,778,731,965 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $31.47 | $5,778,731,965 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $31.47 | $5,778,731,965 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $31.47 | $5,778,731,965 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $31.53 | $5,774,613,215 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $31.53 | $5,774,613,215 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $31.53 | $5,774,613,215 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $31.51 | $5,771,778,028 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $31.51 | $5,771,782,840 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $31.51 | $5,771,782,840 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $31.51 | $5,771,782,840 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $31.51 | $5,771,782,840 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $31.51 | $5,771,782,840 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $31.51 | $5,771,782,840 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $31.51 | $5,771,782,840 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $31.55 | $5,775,963,590 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $31.55 | $5,775,963,590 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $31.55 | $5,775,963,590 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $31.55 | $5,775,963,590 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $31.55 | $5,775,963,590 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $31.55 | $5,775,963,533 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $31.55 | $5,775,963,533 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-05 | $31.55 | $5,775,963,533 | 11 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.