Corpay (CPAY)
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$416.37-0.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 46.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CPAY — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 21, 2026, Corpay, Inc. (“Corpay” or the "Company") entered into the eighteenth amendment (the “Eighteenth Amendment”) to its Credit Agreement (as amended and supplemented from time to time, including by the Eighteenth Amendment, the “Credit Facility”), dated as of October 24, 2014, among Corpay Technologies Operating Company, LLC, Corpay, the other borrowers party thereto, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent and swing line lender,…
Why it matters: Paying down debt shows financial health and can reduce interest expenses. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifCorpay reports paying down at least $500 million of Term Loan B in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCorpay does not report any significant debt repayment in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting the 16% revenue growth target would show strong business momentum.
Supportive ifRevenue growth for 2026 reported at or above 16%.
Worry ifRevenue growth for 2026 reported below 16%.
Why it matters: A higher EPS forecast means strong profits. It shows confidence from management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance for 2026 raised above $7.15.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance for 2026 remains at or below $7.15.
Why it matters: The outcome of this process could impact Corpay's financials and reputation. Delays or issues may raise concerns.
Watch forApproval of the FTC settlement is granted without further issues.
Also watch forThe settlement approval is late or not approved.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $318 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,020 loss on $10,000 · 20.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in credit agreement terms can affect financial flexibility. This may impact growth plans.
Watch forAnnouncement of good changes in the credit agreement terms.
Also watch forAnnouncement of bad changes in the credit agreement terms.
Why it matters: Revisions may show changes in the market or problems that affect growth.
Watch forFull-year 2026 revenue guidance is raised above $5.330 billion.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 revenue guidance is now below $5.250 billion.
Why it matters: Hitting this target will prove Corpay's growth plan works. It shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifCorpay achieves revenue growth of at least 16% for the full year 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 16% for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Higher interest expenses could impact profitability and cash flow. Keeping it low is crucial.
Worry ifInterest expense was below $415 million for the quarter.
Less concerning ifInterest expense was above $445 million for the quarter.
Why it matters: This guidance is critical to assess if Corpay can maintain its growth momentum. A drop below 16% may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is about $1.355 billion at the midpoint. This is a 16% increase from last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance exceeds 16% growth year over year.
Why it matters: Strong EPS growth is important for Corpay's finances and for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ1 2026 EPS growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ1 2026 EPS growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Finalizing the FTC settlement will clear up legal risks and money impacts. This is key for business stability.
Watch forThe FTC approves the $100 million settlement with no extra penalties.
Also watch forThe FTC denies the settlement or adds more penalties.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Corpay can maintain its growth momentum. A drop below 16% may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance of 16% or higher year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance drops below 16% year over year.
Why it matters: Organic growth is key to Corpay's strategy. A decline below 10% may indicate challenges in their business model.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth remains at or above 10% in Q3.
Less concerning ifOrganic revenue growth falls below 10% in Q3.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how much money the company makes. A drop may mean problems.
Worry ifAdjusted net income per diluted share expected to be $7.15 or higher.
Less concerning ifAdjusted net income per diluted share guidance drops below $7.15.