Fossil Group Inc (FOSL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
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Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Return to revenue growth in Q4 2026: Q2 FY26 rev -4.9% vs >0% target; FY26 guide -4.0% vs >0% target.
View ThesisManagement screens weak on capital allocation, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 52% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskFossil Group must return to revenue growth in Q4 2026 to justify its price. Revenue fell 4.9% year over year, and guidance indicates a decline of 4%. It trades at 0.3× price-to-sales versus a peer median of 0.8×. The price reflects less growth than forecasted, indicating modest expectations. A specific risk is the potential credibility hit if guidance is cut after a recent raise. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. FOSL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 2 analysts currently covering FOSL (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOSL Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Footwear — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put FOSL next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Maintain adjusted operating margin between 4% and 6% in 2026
Strong margin expansion supports operating margin objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.

Threatens: Achieve positive free cash flow by year-end 2026
Sales decline threatens free cash flow objective.

Advances: Return to revenue growth in Q4 2026
Earnings beat and outlook lift support revenue growth objective.

IPO could enhance capital for growth initiatives.

IPO could enhance capital for growth initiatives.
Store closures hinder revenue growth and cash flow objectives.

Partnership with Intel enhances product offerings and growth.

Partnership with Intel enhances product offerings and growth.