Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Corteva (CTVA)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.04-1.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.62 → 0.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CTVA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Crop Protection net sales grow to at least $1.88 billion | Corteva grows seed and crop protection sales steadily. | Intact | Crop Protection net sales fall below $1.78 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical agricultural and materials business with a potential growth engine in Seed, rather than a steady, low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: the signal recently improved, but recent financial performance remains well below its industry cohort.
CTVA is described as cheap versus peers, though its valuation still carries a premium to peers and the model has medium confidence. The expectations gap is negative, while the pricing assessment says the fragility is justified rather than unusually concentrated.
Near term, management has raised 2026 Operating EBITDA guidance and kept Operating EPS guidance steady, while Seed revenue and operating EBITDA grew in 2026-Q1. The planned separation remains on track, but weak recent performance, fragile earnings quality, and a recent history of a deep miss leave execution risk elevated.
Over the next few quarters, a reversal and guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility. The sector backdrop is a tailwind if bellwethers CF, MOS, and SMG keep reporting strong results and higher guidance, but misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.
For the 1-3 year view, CTVA has evidence of growth execution and a supportive sector backdrop, but the weak recent results and elevated risks make confirmation important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating EBITDA is guided near $4.1 billion in 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating EBITDA falls below $4.0 billion |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• The Company reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance3 and expects Operating EBITDA1 to be in the range of $4.0 to $4.2 billion.” “• The Company refined full-year 2026 guidance3 and expects operating EBITDA1 to be $4.0 to $4.2 billion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Complete seed business spin-off by 2026-Q4 | The planned seed business spin-off is on track for late 2026. | Intact | Spin-off delayed beyond 2026-Q4 | Spin-off completed 2026-10-01 vs 2026-Q4 target Corteva completed the separation of its seed segment into Vylor Inc. on October 1, 2026, via pro rata distribution. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We remain focused on launching two strong companies, on track for the fourth quarter, and on delivering our 2026 targets.” “We also progressed actions related to our planned separation, and we are on track to complete the separation in the second half of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Seed segment net sales grow to at least $4.54 billion | Corteva grows seed and crop protection sales steadily. | Intact | Seed net sales fall below $4.54 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.16 → $0.71 · observed estimates
$18.97B → $8.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.16 | $18,974,713,947 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.46 | $18,950,890,400 | 3 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.17 | $18,982,991,725 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.46 | $18,950,890,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.46 | $18,950,890,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.46 | $18,950,890,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.46 | $18,950,890,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.46 | $18,950,890,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.17 | $18,972,336,170 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.39 | $18,873,011,200 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.39 | $18,873,011,200 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.40 | $18,756,583,230 | 4 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.40 | $18,756,583,230 | 4 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.15 | $18,914,312,158 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.15 | $18,733,645,059 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.14 | $18,716,137,425 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.14 | $18,716,137,425 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.14 | $18,716,137,425 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.14 | $18,716,137,425 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.14 | $18,716,137,425 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.14 | $18,718,242,688 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.14 | $18,718,242,688 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.14 | $18,720,751,035 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.15 | $18,720,751,035 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.15 | $18,720,751,035 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.15 | $18,706,070,537 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.15 | $18,716,133,509 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.15 | $18,716,133,509 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.15 | $18,713,780,568 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.15 | $18,713,780,568 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.15 | $18,713,780,568 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.15 | $18,713,780,568 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.15 | $18,713,780,568 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.15 | $18,713,780,568 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.15 | $18,713,780,568 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.15 | $18,713,780,568 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.62 | $18,693,786,439 | 6 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.62 | $18,693,786,439 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.62 | $18,693,786,439 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.65 | $18,666,201,787 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.67 | $18,662,421,965 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.68 | $18,676,820,132 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.68 | $8,040,205,840 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.68 | $8,040,205,840 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.68 | $8,040,205,840 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.68 | $8,040,205,840 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.73 | $8,049,396,180 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.73 | $8,049,396,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.73 | $8,049,396,180 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.73 | $8,051,235,798 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.73 | $8,051,235,798 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.41 | $8,051,235,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.41 | $8,051,235,798 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.59 | $8,051,235,798 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.59 | $8,051,235,798 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.73 | $8,049,396,180 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.73 | $8,049,396,180 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.73 | $8,046,235,798 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.73 | $8,046,235,798 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.73 | $8,046,235,798 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.73 | $8,046,235,798 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.73 | $8,046,235,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.73 | $8,046,235,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.73 | $8,046,235,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.71 | $8,048,363,165 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.71 | $8,048,363,165 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.71 | $8,048,363,165 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.71 | $8,048,363,165 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.71 | $8,048,363,165 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.