Corteva (CTVA)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$86.77+0.44%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $86.77. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $87 the market pays 36× p/e — above the 24× p/e peer median but in line with its own 31× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $69 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $86–$96. Note: our $69 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($86–$96). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $91.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $151.09 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $154.44 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $13.86 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$86.00 – $96.00 (median $91.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.42/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $44.51 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $77.57 | 23.5 | 3.30 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $88.53 | 14.3 | 6.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $97.47 | 32.1 | 3.04 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $56.65 | 23.5 | 2.41 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $55.69 | 2.1 | 26.56 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $66.86 | 27.7 | 2.41 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $34.95 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $74.66 | 31.0 | 2.41 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $58.51 | 23.5 | 2.49 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $158.78 | 23.5 | 6.75 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $86.16 | 23.5 | 3.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $58.48 | 2.1 | 27.88 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $101.69 | 27.7 | 3.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $113.55 | 31.0 | 3.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $255.96 | 23.5 | 10.89 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $113.95 | 23.5 | 4.85 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $57.90 | 2.1 | 27.61 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $134.48 | 27.7 | 4.85 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $150.17 | 31.0 | 4.85 | Analyst | high |