Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
DoorDash (DASH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$198.59+8.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.70 → 4.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 27 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 27 to 27; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DASH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA grows at least 20% YoY | Profit rises with adjusted EBITDA up 28% to $754 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 20% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented marketplace business, with robust earnings quality but elevated risk. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent earnings lifted momentum, while financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
DASH is expensive versus peers, with a 4.9 premium and a modest expectations gap. The valuation is tagged as justified, but confidence in that assessment is low, and optionality is the main source of difference in the valuation view.
Over the multi-year view, management has continued to prioritize marketplace growth, and revenue rose from $3,446 million in 2025-Q3 to $4,616 million in 2026-Q3, while Marketplace GOV reached $33.9 billion. Membership expansion has shown progress, but the latest supplied metrics do not quantify it separately, and the global technology platform’s benefits remain unproven in the financials. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk; peer earnings and estimates have also been weakening, despite the recent earnings beat.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued marketplace growth, meaningful membership expansion, and completion of the global technology platform. Near term, a guidance cut could weaken the setup, while continued strength or weakness from sector bellwethers such as AMZN, TSLA, and HD may affect the sector backdrop.
DASH shows clear growth progress, but its expensive valuation, elevated risk, and performance below its industry cohort make execution and sector signals central to the 1-to-3-year view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company manages costs well despite competition and legal risks. |
| Intact |
| Profit margins fall significantly due to competition or legal rulings |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Deliveroo contributes about $200 million to Adjusted EBITDA | Profit rises with adjusted EBITDA up 28% to $754 million. | Under Pressure | Deliveroo contribution falls well below $150 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Marketplace Gross Order Value grows at least 28% YoY | A primary condition in DoorDash's published investment case. The stated target is >=28% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 28% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 33.95% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=28% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 202633.952409 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.41 → $4.78 · observed estimates
$21.21B → $21.71B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.41 | $21,208,824,920 | 37 / 43 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.41 | $21,208,824,920 | 37 / 43 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.49 | $21,270,050,323 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.41 | $21,208,824,920 | 37 / 43 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.41 | $21,208,824,920 | 37 / 43 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.41 | $21,208,824,920 | 37 / 43 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.41 | $21,208,824,920 | 37 / 43 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.49 | $21,270,049,394 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.49 | $21,270,049,394 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.49 | $21,276,454,156 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.41 | $21,215,090,270 | 37 / 43 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.49 | $21,276,454,156 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.49 | $21,276,454,156 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.49 | $21,276,454,156 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.54 | $21,426,060,327 | 30 / 33 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.41 | $21,356,823,730 | 37 / 43 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.41 | $21,356,823,730 | 37 / 43 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.41 | $21,356,823,730 | 37 / 43 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.46 | $21,397,649,310 | 36 / 43 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.54 | $21,426,060,327 | 30 / 33 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.54 | $21,426,060,327 | 30 / 33 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.54 | $21,426,060,327 | 30 / 33 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.54 | $21,426,060,327 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.54 | $21,426,060,327 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.54 | $21,426,060,327 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.54 | $21,426,060,327 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.54 | $21,426,060,327 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.63 | $21,515,566,639 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.56 | $21,485,298,652 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.55 | $21,491,550,946 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.55 | $21,491,550,946 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.55 | $21,491,550,946 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.70 | $21,525,557,482 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.70 | $21,525,557,482 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.70 | $21,525,557,482 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.70 | $21,525,557,482 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.70 | $21,525,557,482 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.70 | $21,525,557,482 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.70 | $21,525,557,482 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.70 | $21,525,557,482 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.70 | $21,535,722,675 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.70 | $21,535,722,675 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.70 | $21,529,908,611 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.70 | $21,529,908,611 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.70 | $21,529,908,611 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.70 | $21,529,908,611 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.70 | $21,529,898,169 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.70 | $21,529,282,380 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.70 | $21,529,540,434 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.70 | $21,529,527,632 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.70 | $21,529,540,152 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.70 | $21,529,601,648 | 28 / 32 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.70 | $21,529,601,648 | 28 / 32 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.70 | $21,529,601,648 | 28 / 32 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.70 | $21,529,601,648 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.69 | $21,533,958,101 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.69 | $21,533,958,101 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.69 | $21,533,958,101 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.69 | $21,533,958,101 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.69 | $21,533,958,101 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.69 | $21,533,958,101 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.70 | $21,540,734,148 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.70 | $21,540,734,148 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.70 | $21,540,734,148 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.70 | $21,540,734,148 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.70 | $21,540,734,148 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.70 | $21,540,734,148 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.70 | $21,540,734,148 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.70 | $21,540,734,148 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.70 | $21,540,734,148 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.70 | $21,540,739,148 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.70 | $21,540,739,148 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.70 | $21,531,645,632 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.70 | $21,531,645,632 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.71 | $21,536,548,071 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.71 | $21,536,548,071 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.71 | $21,536,548,071 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.71 | $21,536,548,071 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.71 | $21,536,548,071 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.71 | $21,536,542,101 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.71 | $21,535,928,382 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.71 | $21,535,935,918 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.71 | $21,535,935,918 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.71 | $21,539,570,065 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.71 | $21,539,570,065 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.71 | $21,539,570,065 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.71 | $21,539,570,065 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.71 | $21,539,570,065 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.71 | $21,539,570,065 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.71 | $21,539,570,065 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.70 | $21,539,579,821 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.70 | $21,539,584,126 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.70 | $21,539,584,126 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.70 | $21,539,584,126 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.70 | $21,539,584,126 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.70 | $21,539,584,126 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.70 | $21,539,583,165 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.70 | $21,539,583,165 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.78 | $21,639,286,390 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.78 | $21,699,551,635 | 27 / 31 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.78 | $21,699,551,635 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.78 | $21,699,551,635 | 27 / 31 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.78 | $21,704,477,682 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.78 | $21,709,382,444 | 27 / 32 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 34 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.