DoorDash (DASH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$198.59+8.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DASH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 43.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DASH — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-29
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On October 28, 2026, DoorDash, Inc., a Nevada corporation (“ DoorDash ” or the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Maplebear Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Instacart ”), and Ibiza Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of DoorDash (“ Merger Sub ”), pursuant to which, among other things, subject to its terms, Merger Sub will merge with and into Inst…
Why it matters: The deal needs a shareholder vote and regulatory approval in the U.S., Canada, and Israel. A delay or block could stop the planned grocery expansion.
Watch forInstacart holders approve the deal. Required regulators clear it. Closing stays on track for late 2027 or the first half of 2028.
Also watch forInstacart holders reject the deal. A required regulator blocks it. Or the companies disclose a major delay in closing.
Why it matters: DoorDash plans to use cash and debt for the deal. The company says it aims to keep investment-grade ratings.
Worry ifDoorDash discloses permanent funding for the deal. It says its plan still aims to keep investment-grade ratings.
Less concerning ifDoorDash reports a higher debt cost, a funding change, or a plan that no longer targets investment-grade ratings.
Why it matters: Management links the platform to faster product work and less repeat effort. Its rollout is a stated priority, but the payoff is not yet clear in the results.
Supportive ifDoorDash says the new global platform is fully rolled out by the end of June 2027.
Worry ifDoorDash says the full rollout has slipped past June 2027.
Why it matters: From Q4, DoorDash plans to stop showing results without Deliveroo. Total company growth will show whether the wider business keeps pace.
Watch forQ4 total orders grow at or above 28% year over year, and Marketplace GOV grows at or above 36%.
Also watch forQ4 total orders grow below 21% year over year, or Marketplace GOV grows below 25%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$183 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $478 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,890 loss on $10,000 · 38.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: DoorDash set a year-end target for Dot in its largest test market. A report on its order share will test progress in delivery robots.
Supportive ifBy year-end 2026, DoorDash says Dot handles a high single-digit share of orders in its largest test market.
Worry ifDoorDash reports that Dot delivers below 5% of orders in that market. Or it gives no update on order share by year-end.
Why it matters: Q3 Adjusted EBITDA was 3.1% of GOV, up from 2.8% in Q2. A fall below 3% would reverse that gain.
Worry ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA stays at or above 3.0% of Marketplace GOV.
Less concerning ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA falls below 2.8% of Marketplace GOV.