Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
Donaldson Company (DCI)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$83.27-2.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.84 → 4.84 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DCI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex between $60M and $75M | A supporting condition in Donaldson Company's published investment case. The stated target is $60M-$75M capex. | Intact | Capex exceeds $75M significantly in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For the full year, Donaldson expects to repurchase approximately 1% of its shares outstanding.” “Full-year repurchases are expected to remain unchanged from the current year-to-date total of 1.2%.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an established industrial business with a growth-and-margin improvement thesis, rather than a turnaround. The multi-year view is intact: fiscal 2026 results were strong and management delivered on its sales, earnings, and margin priorities.
The valuation is characterized as cheap versus peers, with expectations close to the model’s baseline and no flagged fragility. Valuation has risen recently, so the earlier relative discount has narrowed; the evidence does not show that the market is assuming unusually strong results.
Near term, fiscal 2026 sales and adjusted earnings grew, and operating margin improved, supporting the recent performance record. Management met its capital spending range, though that priority was rated mixed; recent debt issuance and a negative capital-allocation event add a risk to watch. The evidence also notes recent misses across DCI and its peers, despite a low stated miss risk.
The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would weaken the near-term case, while maintaining the current direction would support the thesis. Over the multi-year view, continued margin progress and execution on organic growth and the Facet acquisition matter. Industrials peers GEV, PH, and EMR are useful sector signals, since continued strength could sustain support while weaker results could remove that tailwind.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, with strong fiscal 2026 execution balanced against moderate risk, sector headwinds, and recent debt-related developments. Evidence is medium confidence, and the next guidance and industrial-sector results are important checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain free cash flow yield near 4% | Free cash flow stays strong around 90%. | Intact | Free cash flow yield falls below 3.5% in FY26 | Free cash flow: $185M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=4% free cash flow yield. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 25, 2026185,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For the full year, Donaldson expects to repurchase approximately 1% of its shares outstanding.” “Full-year repurchases are expected to remain unchanged from the current year-to-date total of 1.2%.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increase operating margin to 15.8%-16.2% | A primary condition in Donaldson Company's published investment case. The stated target is 15.8%-16.2% operating margin. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 15.5% in FY26 | Operating margin: 16.68% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 15.8%-16.2% operating margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 25, 202616.67926 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Operating margin is expected to be between 16.6% and 17.2% versus 15.4%, or 16.0% on an adjusted basis, in 2026, driven by gross margin expansion, partially offset by expense deleveraging, largely as a result of the full-year impact of Facet run-rate expenses as well as higher amortization expense.” “Adjusted 2026 operating margin is expected to be between 15.8% and 16.2%, versus previous expectations of between 16.0% and 16.4%, and above fiscal 2025 operating margin of 13.4%, or 15.7% on an adjusted basis.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve record sales with organic growth and Facet acquisition | Donaldson grows sales about 6% yearly, helped by the Facet acquisition. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below ~5.8% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.87 → $4.84 · observed estimates
$4.36B → $4.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.87 | $4,357,681,023 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.84 | $4,357,936,419 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.84 | $4,357,936,419 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.84 | $4,357,936,419 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.84 | $4,357,936,419 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.84 | $4,357,936,419 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.84 | $4,357,936,419 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.84 | $4,357,936,419 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.84 | $4,357,936,419 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.84 | $4,357,936,419 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.85 | $4,377,912,682 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.85 | $4,377,912,682 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.85 | $4,377,912,682 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.86 | $4,379,925,156 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.86 | $4,379,925,156 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.86 | $4,379,925,156 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.83 | $4,370,210,870 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.83 | $4,391,525,333 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.83 | $4,391,525,333 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.83 | $4,391,525,333 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.83 | $4,391,525,333 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.83 | $4,391,525,333 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.83 | $4,391,525,333 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.83 | $4,391,525,333 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.83 | $4,391,525,333 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.83 | $4,391,525,333 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.83 | $4,391,525,333 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.83 | $4,391,525,333 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.84 | $4,389,096,300 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.