Donaldson Company (DCI)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$83.27-2.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
DCI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-29
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 27, 2026, Donaldson Company, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Note Purchase Agreement (the “Note Purchase Agreement”) with a group of institutional investors (the “Purchasers”). Pursuant to the Note Purchase Agreement, the Company may issue up to $1,500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes from time to time in one or more series. Subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions, the Company will issue a…
Why it matters: Donaldson may issue up to $1.5 billion in notes. It also forecast $55 million to $60 million in 2027 interest costs.
Worry ifA note sale is disclosed, and fiscal 2027 interest expense is more than $60 million.
Less concerning ifNo notes are issued, or fiscal 2027 interest expense is $60 million or less.
Why it matters: Supply limits drove a 2.8% drop in organic sales in the latest quarter. A return to growth would show those limits are easing.
Supportive ifOrganic Aerospace and Defense sales grow at least 10% year over year. This is near the low end of management's mid-teens 2027 forecast.
Worry ifOrganic Aerospace and Defense sales stay flat or fall year over year. Or management cuts its mid-teens growth forecast.
Why it matters: Donaldson set fiscal 2027 sales growth guidance at 5.5% to 9.5%. A Q1 result in that range would support the growth plan.
Supportive ifAt the December 3, 2026 earnings report, fiscal Q1 sales growth is at least 5.5% year over year.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 sales growth is below 5.5% year over year, or management cuts its 5.5% to 9.5% full-year range.
Why it matters: Management tied its record-year plan to wider margins. Facet costs and plant issues could make that harder.
Supportive ifReported fiscal 2027 operating margin reaches at least 16.6%, the low end of guidance.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 operating margin is below 16.6%. Or management lowers its 16.6% to 17.2% range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $226 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,604 loss on $10,000 · 26.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.