Donaldson Company (DCI)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$91.03+0.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DCI — officer change
Dated 2026-07-24
Director — Douglas A. Milroy: Mr. Milroy resigned from the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: EPS guidance shows how the company expects to make money in the future.
Supportive ifEPS guidance for Q1 2027 falls between $4.22 and $4.38.
Worry ifEPS guidance for Q1 2027 is below $4.22.
Why it matters: Achieving this margin would show progress towards the company's goal for fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifQ4 operating margin is 15.8% or higher.
Worry ifQ4 operating margin is below 15.6%.
Why it matters: This growth indicates strong demand in a key market, driven by Facet's contributions. Weak growth could signal market challenges.
Supportive ifAerospace and Defense sales reported to grow over 50% year over year.
Worry ifSales growth in Aerospace and Defense is below expectations. This shows market weakness.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it signals a potential recovery for Donaldson and its peers. This could improve investor sentiment.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 10%.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrials sector stays below 8%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $208 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,604 loss on $10,000 · 26.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates may show changes in profit expectations. They can also show the health of the business.
Watch forAdjusted EPS guidance raised to above $4.01.
Also watch forAdjusted EPS guidance is now below $3.93.
Why it matters: The Facet deal could help Donaldson make more money. Good integration is important.
Supportive ifLook for news on closing the Facet deal and starting integration.
Worry ifWatch for any delays or problems with the deal or integration.
Why it matters: Sales growth here is crucial after recent declines in this segment.
Watch forIndustrial Solutions segment sales grow year over year by more than 2%.
Also watch forSales in the Industrial Solutions segment fell compared to last year.
Why it matters: The success of the acquisition will impact the Industrial Solutions segment. It will also affect growth.
Watch forFacet contributes $25 million to $30 million in sales in Q4.
Also watch forFacet contributes less than $25 million in sales in Q4.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well Donaldson expects to do after a strong fiscal 2026. Strong growth means continued demand and good integration of the Facet acquisition.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 sales growth guidance confirmed within the range of 5.5% to 9.5%.
Worry ifSales growth guidance is below 5.5%. This shows weaker demand expectations.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this segment supports overall company performance and margin goals.
Supportive ifLife Sciences segment sales growth reported at over 10% year over year.
Worry ifLife Sciences segment sales growth reported below 9% year over year.
Why it matters: More growth in this segment shows strong demand and helps revenue goals.
Supportive ifMobile Solutions sales grew more than 5.5% compared to last year.
Worry ifMobile Solutions sales grew less than 3.5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Finishing the purchase on time would help Donaldson's products and market position.
Supportive ifFacet acquisition closes in the second half of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifThe Facet acquisition closure is delayed past fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Higher organic sales growth shows strong demand. It shows good execution in key markets.
Supportive ifOrganic sales growth reported above 3% for Q4.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth is below 3%. This suggests weak demand.
Why it matters: Stability in this area would show recovery from recent drops. It would help revenue grow.
Watch forAerospace and Defense sales show no decline or increase in Q4.
Also watch forAerospace and Defense sales decline further in Q4.
Why it matters: Hitting this margin range shows good cost management and efficiency. These are key for making money.
Supportive ifOperating margin is between 16.6% and 17.2% for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifOperating margin is below 16.6%. This shows challenges in managing costs.
Why it matters: This acquisition could enhance Donaldson's product offerings and boost sales. It is crucial for future growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is complete. It is now part of the Industrial Solutions segment.
Worry ifThe acquisition has delays from regulators or does not close as planned.
Why it matters: A drop in Aerospace and Defense sales shows ongoing challenges in that area.
Worry ifAerospace and Defense sales decrease mid-single digits from last year.
Less concerning ifAerospace and Defense sales stabilize or grow year over year.