Dollar General (DG)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-07-07
$115.44-0.71%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track DG free→Dollar General grows sales about 4% a year with new stores and pricing. Profit per share is expected near $7.33 in fiscal 2027. The company keeps capital spending steady near $1.4 billion. Earnings beats show good execution despite a mild market pullback.
Weak consumer sentiment and tougher competition may slow sales growth below 3.7%. Rising costs or poor execution could pressure profit margins. Capital spending above $1.5 billion might hurt free cash flow.
The stock trades about 25% below our fair value near $154, reflecting cautious optimism. Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth, slightly above management's 3.7%-4.2% sales target, indicating some upside risk to consensus.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures exceed $1.5B or fall below $1.4B in FY26
Plan to keep capital expenditures within the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $7.10 in FY26
Target diluted EPS in the range of $7.10 to $7.35 for the fiscal year ending January 29, 2027.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. EPS grew from $0.89 in 2024-Q3 to $1.28 in 2025-Q3, showing progress towards the EPS target. However, the current EPS trajectory suggests challenges in reaching the upper end of the guidance range.
“Diluted EPS in the range of approximately $7.10 to $7.35.”
“Diluted EPS of approximately $6.30 to $6.50.”
“Diluted EPS of approximately $5.80 to $6.30.”
“Diluted EPS approximately $5.20 to $5.80.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3.7% in FY26
Aim to grow net sales by 3.7% to 4.2% for the fiscal year ending January 29, 2027.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $103.04B in 2024-Q4 to $109.11B in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards the sales growth target. However, the trajectory remains behind the stated goal.
“The Company continues to expect net sales growth in the range of approximately 3.7% to 4.2%.”
“Net sales growth in the range of approximately 3.7% to 4.2%.”
“Net sales growth of approximately 4.7% to 4.9%.”