Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
Walt Disney Company (The) (DIS)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$117.22-1.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.39 → 8.48 EPS · FY ending Sep 27, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DIS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Repurchase at least $7 billion of stock in fiscal 2026 | A supporting condition in Walt Disney Company (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $7 billion share repurchases in FY26. | Intact | Repurchases fall below $5 billion in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large entertainment business with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround based only on cost cuts. The long-term thesis is intact: recent performance is strong, and management’s main priorities are on track, though earnings quality and management evidence are neutral.
The valuation signal is mixed: Disney is described as cheap versus peers, while a separate measure shows a 27% premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, and priced-in fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to an unusually fragile setup; valuation also fell recently, though its meaning is not specified.
Near term, recent earnings beats and strong financial performance support continued progress, with management expecting adjusted EPS growth of about 12% to 16% in fiscal 2026 and double-digit growth into fiscal 2027. Streaming income and margins have improved, and the company has reiterated its fiscal 2026 repurchase goal; however, the sector backdrop is a headwind and a guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether earnings and streaming-margin progress continue without a guidance cut. Fed rate cuts and stronger results from sector peers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker execution or lower guidance would challenge the thesis.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis rests on sustained earnings growth and streaming profitability, with recent execution supporting the case but sector and guidance risks still present. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Walt Disney Company (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=16% adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2026. |
| Intact |
| adjusted EPS growth falls below 10% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Importantly, we delivered our first double-digit Entertainment SVOD operating margin in Q2 and remain on track to deliver at least 10% for the full fiscal year 2026.” “We continue to expect double-digit Entertainment SVOD operating margin for full-year fiscal 2026, excluding the impact of the 53rd week.” Delivery assessment Nov 3, 2026 |
Free cash flow at least $19 billion in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Walt Disney Company (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is FCF >= $19 billion in FY26. | Intact | FCF falls below $15 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $3.072B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $19 billion in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20263,072,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage FCC and legal risks without major impact | A supporting condition in Walt Disney Company (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is No material FCC penalties or license losses in FY26. | Intact | FCC revokes ABC licenses or imposes major fines in FY26 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase SVOD operating income by $200 million in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Walt Disney Company (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is SVOD operating income >= $500 million in Q2 2026. | Intact | SVOD operating income increase is less than $100 million in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.39 → $8.48 · observed estimates
$110.66B → $110.93B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | $8.39 | $110,659,230,191 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.39 | $110,712,566,282 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.39 | $110,712,566,282 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.39 | $110,811,020,828 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.39 | $110,811,020,828 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.39 | $110,811,020,828 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.39 | $110,811,020,828 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.39 | $110,811,020,828 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.39 | $110,899,639,836 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.39 | $110,899,639,836 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.42 | $111,002,560,780 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.42 | $111,002,560,780 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.42 | $111,002,560,780 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.43 | $111,010,301,176 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.43 | $111,010,301,176 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.43 | $111,010,301,176 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.43 | $111,010,301,176 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.43 | $111,010,301,176 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.47 | $110,991,752,331 | 12 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.47 | $110,991,752,331 | 12 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.47 | $110,991,752,331 | 12 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.48 | $110,871,189,948 | 12 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.48 | $110,871,189,948 | 12 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.48 | $110,871,189,948 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.48 | $110,871,189,948 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.48 | $110,871,189,948 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.48 | $110,871,189,948 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.48 | $110,871,189,948 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.48 | $110,871,189,948 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.48 | $110,871,189,948 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.48 | $110,913,489,948 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.48 | $110,913,489,948 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.48 | $110,913,489,948 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.48 | $110,868,411,598 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.48 | $110,868,411,598 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.48 | $110,868,411,598 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.48 | $110,868,411,598 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.48 | $110,933,688,628 | 12 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 29 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 17, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.