Walt Disney Company (The) (DIS)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$105.31-1.73%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DIS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DIS — President transition
Dated 2026-02-24
Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Communications Officer — Kristina K. Schake: The company terminated Kristina K. Schake's employment without cause.
Why it matters: This target shows that management wants to return money to shareholders. Missing it may mean weaker cash flow.
Worry ifShare repurchases are less than $9 billion for fiscal 2026. This shows a change in how they use capital.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases are $9 billion or more. This shows a strong focus on returning capital.
Why it matters: Economic factors can change how much people spend on experiences. Attendance affects Disney's income.
Worry ifPark attendance stays strong even when reports show consumer spending is down.
Less concerning ifPark attendance goes down after bad economic news. This shows how much people react to the economy.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows Disney is on track with its growth strategy. It signals strong financial health and investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EPS growth of 16% or more compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS growth is below 12%. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Updates on this plan show management wants to give value to shareholders. They trust future cash flows.
Supportive ifThey announced stock buybacks of at least $3.5 billion by Q3.
Worry ifNo major stock buybacks were reported by Q3.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $233 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,170 loss on $10,000 · 21.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong growth in ESPN's direct-to-consumer business is key to Disney's strategy. It shows how well they are adapting to market changes.
Watch forESPN's direct-to-consumer subscriber count grows by 10% or more next quarter.
Also watch forSubscriber count falls or grows less than 5%. This shows challenges in the strategy.
Why it matters: If Disney grows, it shows their streaming plan is working. This can boost investor trust in their digital future.
Supportive ifQ2 SVOD operating income goes up by $200 million from the last quarter.
Worry ifSVOD operating income growth is less than $100 million.
Why it matters: This change helps keep communication clear during leadership changes. It impacts trust with stakeholders.
Watch forA new Chief Communications Officer will be appointed by March 18, 2026.
Also watch forNo appointment is made by March 18, 2026.
Why it matters: Going over the buyback target shows a strong focus on giving money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says share buybacks will be over $9 billion for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifManagement says share buybacks will be below $9 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Disney is doing financially and its plans for growth.
Watch forEarnings report shows better than expected revenue and EPS growth.
Also watch forEarnings report shows worse than expected revenue and EPS growth.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is key for profits. It shows success in the streaming plan.
Supportive ifEntertainment SVOD operating income goes up by over 10% in Q4 from Q3.
Worry ifOperating income growth is under 10%. This suggests possible problems in streaming profits.
Why it matters: Slowing attendance may show less consumer interest. This can affect revenue from Experiences.
Worry ifDomestic park attendance growth falls below 3% in Q4 compared to Q3.
Less concerning ifAttendance growth is at or above 3%. This shows strong consumer interest.
Why it matters: The growth guidance shows Disney can keep making strong earnings.
Supportive ifManagement expects adjusted EPS to grow by about 12-16% for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifManagement cuts adjusted EPS growth to below 12% for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment shows strong consumer interest and more park visitors.
Supportive ifDisney Experiences segment revenue grows year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifDisney Experiences segment revenue falls or grows less than 5%.
Why it matters: Attendance trends will show if Disney remains popular. This is important during tough times and competition.
Watch forDomestic park attendance goes up year over year after the summer.
Also watch forDomestic park attendance goes down year over year after the summer.
Why it matters: Hitting the adjusted EPS growth target shows good financial health. It gives investors confidence.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS growth reported at 12% or higher, excluding the 53rd week.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth is below 12%. This shows weaker financial performance.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good operations. It also supports growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 total segment operating income was $5.3 billion or more.
Worry ifQ3 total segment operating income was less than $5.3 billion.