Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Dow Inc. (DOW)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.98-2.20%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.57 → 1.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DOW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver more than $6 billion in near-term cash and cost support by 2026 | Dow is cutting costs and improving cash flow with a $6 billion target by 2026. | Improving | cash and cost support falls below $6 billion by 2026-Q4 | Cash from operations: $1.838B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $6 billion in cash and cost support. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 23, 20261,838,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical chemicals business with a recovery and operational-improvement thesis. Its thesis state is watch: recent earnings beats and gains in selected businesses have improved momentum, but recent financial performance remains weak and risk is elevated.
DOW is valued at a premium to peers, with the valuation evidence pointing to a durable premium and a nearly neutral expectations gap. The snapshot labels that pricing justified and fragility low, but the premium sits alongside loss-making earnings and weak recent performance.
Near term, recent earnings beats and progress in higher-value businesses provide support, while the miss-risk estimate is low; the broader industry has a history of misses, so the risk is not absent. Over the multi-year view, exiting higher-cost capacity and growing higher-value markets could help operations, but the $500 million operational EBITDA improvement remains a watch item and portfolio actions continue through 2027.
A key swing factor is whether DOW can sustain its recently raised guidance; reversing it could damage management credibility. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength from DD, CE, and OLN would support the Materials backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on operational improvements becoming broader financial recovery while the sector backdrop remains supportive. The recent progress is encouraging, but weak results and a peer premium keep execution risks important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Successful leadership transition to CEO Karen S. Carter | New CEO Karen S. | Improving | Leadership fails to stabilize or improve company performance | Q1-Q3 2026 earnings beats vs stable execution target CEO Carter promoted July 2026; Q1-Q3 2026 earnings beats; $1.3B 2027 self-help target; portfolio optimization moves. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Return to positive earnings per share | A primary condition in Dow Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $2.8. | Improving | EPS remains negative or below $2.8 in 2026-FY | Diluted EPS: $0.62 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.8. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 23, 20260.62 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve about 10% revenue growth | A primary condition in Dow Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 9.9% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | revenue growth falls below ~9.9% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 12.98% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 9.9% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 23, 202612.975033 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.01 → $1.83 · observed estimates
$44.08B → $42.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.01 | $44,081,537,603 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.84 | $43,324,821,380 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.81 | $43,362,632,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.84 | $43,282,737,020 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.84 | $43,282,737,020 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.81 | $43,362,632,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.84 | $43,282,737,020 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.84 | $43,282,737,020 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.84 | $43,282,737,020 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.84 | $43,282,737,020 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.84 | $43,282,737,020 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.84 | $43,282,737,020 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.84 | $43,282,737,020 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.79 | $43,262,882,543 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.77 | $43,254,401,253 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.74 | $43,237,088,753 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.74 | $43,237,088,753 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.68 | $43,168,024,709 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.68 | $43,168,024,709 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.68 | $43,168,024,709 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.68 | $43,168,024,709 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.68 | $43,154,485,317 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.68 | $43,154,485,317 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.68 | $43,154,485,317 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.65 | $43,073,298,756 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.63 | $42,809,323,678 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.63 | $42,809,323,678 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.63 | $42,809,323,678 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.63 | $42,809,323,678 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.63 | $42,809,323,678 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.63 | $42,809,323,678 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.60 | $42,748,020,531 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.60 | $42,748,020,531 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.60 | $42,748,020,531 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.60 | $42,748,020,531 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.60 | $42,748,020,531 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.57 | $42,685,105,581 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.57 | $42,685,105,581 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.57 | $42,685,105,581 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.57 | $42,685,105,581 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.57 | $42,685,105,581 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.58 | $42,689,168,081 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.58 | $42,689,168,081 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.58 | $42,689,168,081 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.58 | $42,689,168,081 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.58 | $42,689,168,081 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.58 | $42,689,168,081 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.58 | $42,689,168,081 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.57 | $42,562,541,851 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.56 | $42,562,548,101 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.56 | $42,562,548,101 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.56 | $42,562,548,101 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.56 | $42,562,548,101 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.57 | $42,613,407,325 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.57 | $42,613,407,325 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.57 | $42,613,407,325 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.57 | $42,627,101,897 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.58 | $42,604,804,691 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.65 | $42,972,148,277 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.74 | $42,835,753,472 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.74 | $42,835,753,472 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.74 | $42,835,753,472 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.74 | $42,835,753,472 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.82 | $42,946,937,037 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.83 | $42,946,937,037 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.83 | $42,946,937,037 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.83 | $42,946,937,037 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.83 | $42,946,937,037 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.83 | $42,946,937,037 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.83 | $42,946,937,037 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.83 | $42,946,937,037 | 10 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.