Dow Inc. (DOW)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$29.44-3.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DOW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
DOW — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-10
Other Events. Dow Inc. (the “Company”) is registering 5,410,000 shares (the “Shares”) of its common stock, par value $0.01 per share, under the Company’s registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-288028) (the “Registration Statement”), to be issued pursuant to the base prospectus contained therein, as supplemented by a prospectus supplement, dated as of July 10, 2026, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 10, 2026 (the “Prospectus Supplement”). The Shares may b…
Why it matters: Better EBITDA shows how well Dow's changes are working.
Supportive ifQ3 operational EBITDA goes up by at least $500 million from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 operational EBITDA does not go up or falls compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target would show strong financial health and effective cost control.
Supportive ifTotal cash and cost support exceeds $6 billion by Q3.
Worry ifTotal cash and cost support remains below $5 billion.
Why it matters: Cutting costs can help margins and profits. This is important for recovery.
Supportive ifManagement reports big cost cuts that will improve margins next quarter.
Worry ifCost reduction efforts fail to show measurable impact on margins in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is important for revenue recovery and higher margins.
Supportive ifVolume in Packaging & Specialty Plastics increases from last year in Q3.
Worry ifVolume in Packaging & Specialty Plastics decreases from last year in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $388 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,547 loss on $10,000 · 35.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This goal shows management's focus on boosting profits. Success here could improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says EBITDA will improve by at least $500 million next quarter.
Worry ifEBITDA improvement is less than $500 million next quarter.
Why it matters: This would show that management's cost-saving plans are working and help future growth.
Supportive ifSelf-help efforts report benefits over $1.3 billion by Q3.
Worry ifSelf-help efforts report benefits below $1.3 billion by Q3.
Why it matters: This growth shows strong demand and good pricing in different areas.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth exceeds 15% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 5% year-over-year.