Domino's (DPZ)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$341.08-1.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DPZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
DPZ — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-14
Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Data Officer — Kelly E. Garcia: Kelly E. Garcia resigned to accept another executive position outside the Company.
Why it matters: Increasing market share is key for Domino's growth. It shows how well they compete.
Supportive ifManagement reports U.S. market share growth of more than 1% in the next quarter.
Worry ifMarket share growth is flat or declines in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A decline in gross margin may mean higher costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifSupply chain gross margin drops below 12.0% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSupply chain gross margin stays at or above 12.0% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in share repurchases may show a change in how money is spent. This can affect how investors feel.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $75 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases stay the same or go up.
Why it matters: If earnings are low again, investors may worry about growth and management.
Worry ifQ3 earnings miss expectations compared to Q2 results.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings meet or exceed expectations compared to Q2 results.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $285 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,850 loss on $10,000 · 38.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Domino's is performing. It affects investor confidence.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $3.00. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $2.50, suggesting weak performance.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows good financial health. It also means operational success.
Supportive ifNet income in Q3 2026 increases compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income in Q3 2026 declines compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Negative growth would signal a decline in customer demand and market share. This could impact future revenue and profitability.
Worry ifU.S. same store sales growth drops below 0% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifU.S. same store sales growth remains positive or improves in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A decline in store growth could indicate challenges in expansion and market penetration. This could affect long-term growth prospects.
Worry ifGlobal net store growth falls below 180 stores in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifGlobal net store growth remains at or above 180 stores in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs and better operations. This can lead to more profit.
Supportive ifSupply chain gross margin improves by more than 0.3 percentage points in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSupply chain gross margin declines or improves by less than 0.2 percentage points in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This report shows how well sales are doing. It will help us see future growth.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 4% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 2% year over year.