DPZ
Domino'sNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, DPZ has a composite score of 15.1 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The valuation label has changed from "inexpensive" to "fair," indicating a shift in perception. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor, with a medium confidence level of 74.7%. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.11
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.47 → $4.24 (-5.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 20 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 20 maintained. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
13 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
1 priority extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase U.S. market sharegrowthmixed65% progress
2/23: “As we look ahead to 2026, it is our expectation that we will meaningfully increase our market share within a U.S. QSR pizza category that continues to grow.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue grew from $1,084.6M in 2024-Q1 to $1,535.7M in 2025-Q4, indicating some progress in market expansion. However, specific market share gains have not been detailed, suggesting limited substantive delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 39%; 252d 26%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −34%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.05 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 57/100, drawdown 32/100, beta 5/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
As of May 8, 2026, the valuation label for DPZ changed from "inexpensive" to "fair." This is a label change indicating a transition in valuation perception. The overall composite score is 15.1, with a confidence level of 74.7, categorized as medium. The risk label is noted as elevated.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase U.S. market share
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Domino's aims to meaningfully increase its market share within the U.S. QSR pizza category.
On track →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue grew from $1,084.6M in 2024-Q1 to $1,535.7M in 2025-Q4, indicating some progress in market expansion. However, specific market share gains have not been detailed, suggesting limited substantive delivery so far.
65%CEO/CFO:“As we look ahead to 2026, it is our expectation that we will meaningfully increase our market share within a U.S. QSR pizza category that continues to grow.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-23Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“As we look ahead to 2026, it is our expectation that we will meaningfully increase our market share...”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DPZ Domino's | +15 | fair | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-23)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-23)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2711d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, Domino’s Pizza, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 22, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto are being furnished pursuant to
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 51 - 2026-04-2711d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 21, 2026, Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Brian J. Pangburn to the position of Vice President—Controller, effective as of April 21, 2026. In this role, Mr. Pangburn, 41, will serve as the Company’s principal accounting officer. Previously, Mr. Pangburn served as the Company’s Senior Director—Assistant Controller since June 2…
executive changeneutralscore 44 - 2026-02-232mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 23, 2026, Domino’s Pizza, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year, each ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto are being furnished pursuant to
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 12 - 2026-02-202mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 18, 2026, James A. Goldman informed Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (the “Company”) that, after more than 15 years of service on the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”), he has decided to retire from the Board and thus shall not stand for reelection to the Board at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders in April. Mr. Goldman will…
executive changeneutralscore 10 - 2025-11-255mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 19, 2025, C. Andrew Ballard, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his resignation as a member of the Board effective immediately. Mr. Ballard’s resignation from the Board is not the result of any disagreement with the Company’s operations, policies or practices.
executive changeneutralscore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.