Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
Domino's (DPZ)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$341.63+0.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
20.81 → 20.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 19 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DPZ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share repurchases of at least $75 million and dividend of $1.99 per share in Q1 2026 | The company returns capital with $75 million in share buybacks and a 15% dividend increase to $1.99 per share. | Intact | Share repurchases fall below $75 million or dividend per share falls below $1.99 in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DPZ is a global restaurant expansion story, with store growth and capital returns supporting the long-term thesis. The thesis is intact, though delivery is mixed: recent momentum improved and the latest event was an earnings beat, while U.S. sales growth has slowed and management is rated volatile.
DPZ trades at a premium to peers, while the evidence describes valuation as neutral and expectations as broadly aligned with the business setup. The priced-in assessment says execution weakness is recognized, but does not indicate a wider combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near term, results may remain uneven: the latest event was an earnings beat, but the evidence also flags recent misses and a meaningful risk if management cuts guidance. Over the multi-year view, continued store growth and steady capital returns support the business, while the U.S. market-share goal has mixed evidence as same-store sales growth slowed.
A key swing factor is whether U.S. sales momentum improves while the company continues expanding its store base. A guidance cut would weaken the near-term setup; continued strength at restaurant-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
The 1-3 year thesis rests on sustained store expansion, better U.S. sales execution, and stable management delivery. The setup remains intact, but recent sales trends and guidance are important checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Subsequent to the end of the first quarter of 2026, on April 21, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors authorized an additional share repurchase program to repurchase up to $1.0 billion of the Company’s common stock, in addition to the $290.2 million that was previously remaining for a total authorization of $1.29 billion for future share repurchases.”
EPS growth to at least $19.17 in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Domino's's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $19.17. | Intact | EPS falls below $19.17 in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $4.60 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $19.17. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 13, 20264.6 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Global net store growth of at least 180 stores in Q1 2026 | Domino's keeps expanding its global store count with 180 net new stores in Q1 2026. | Intact | Global net store growth falls below 180 stores in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
U.S. same store sales growth near 0.9% in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Domino's's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.9% YoY growth. | Broken | U.S. same store sales growth falls below 0.9% in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “By advancing winning ideas faster and executing them with greater clarity, speed and consistency, we can earn more occasions, continue gaining market share and create meaningful long-term value for shareholders.” “Domino’s is uniquely positioned to continue gaining market share and delivering long-term value for shareholders.”” Revenue was $1.186 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$20.81 → $20.64 · observed estimates
$5.32B → $5.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $20.81 | $5,321,636,188 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $20.81 | $5,321,636,188 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $20.81 | $5,321,636,188 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $20.82 | $5,317,928,496 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $20.82 | $5,317,928,496 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $20.82 | $5,317,928,496 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-06 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-08 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-11 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-13 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-14 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-15 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-16 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-17 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-18 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-19 | $20.83 | $5,317,411,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-20 | $20.81 | $5,310,022,655 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-21 | $20.81 | $5,310,022,655 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-22 | $20.81 | $5,310,022,655 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-23 | $20.81 | $5,310,022,655 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-24 | $20.81 | $5,310,022,655 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-25 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-26 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-27 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-28 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-29 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-30 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-31 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-01 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-02 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-03 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-04 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-05 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-06 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-07 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-08 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-09 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-10 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,116 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-11 | $20.81 | $5,310,661,097 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | $20.80 | $5,310,707,251 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-13 | $20.80 | $5,310,707,251 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-14 | $20.80 | $5,310,707,251 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-15 | $20.80 | $5,310,707,251 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-16 | $20.80 | $5,310,707,251 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-17 | $20.80 | $5,308,710,723 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | $20.80 | $5,308,710,723 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-19 | $20.80 | $5,308,710,723 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-09-20 | $20.80 | $5,308,710,723 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-21 | $20.80 | $5,308,710,723 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-22 | $20.80 | $5,308,710,723 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-23 | $20.77 | $5,305,256,769 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-24 | $20.77 | $5,305,256,769 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-25 | $20.77 | $5,305,256,769 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-26 | $20.80 | $5,306,304,945 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-27 | $20.80 | $5,306,304,945 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-28 | $20.80 | $5,306,304,945 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-29 | $20.80 | $5,306,304,945 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-30 | $20.80 | $5,306,304,945 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-10-01 | $20.81 | $5,308,506,013 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-02 | $20.81 | $5,308,506,013 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-03 | $20.81 | $5,308,677,914 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-04 | $20.81 | $5,308,677,914 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-05 | $20.81 | $5,308,677,914 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-06 | $20.80 | $5,308,564,824 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-07 | $20.81 | $5,310,131,490 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-08 | $20.81 | $5,310,083,342 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-09 | $20.81 | $5,309,061,750 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-10 | $20.81 | $5,309,061,750 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-11 | $20.81 | $5,308,621,266 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-12 | $20.81 | $5,308,621,266 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-13 | $20.81 | $5,308,565,711 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-14 | $20.74 | $5,288,644,876 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-15 | $20.68 | $5,281,236,098 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-16 | $20.65 | $5,281,236,098 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-17 | $20.65 | $5,281,236,098 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-18 | $20.65 | $5,279,661,007 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-19 | $20.65 | $5,279,661,007 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-20 | $20.65 | $5,279,661,007 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-21 | $20.65 | $5,279,661,007 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-22 | $20.65 | $5,279,661,007 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-10-23 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-24 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-25 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-26 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-27 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-28 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-29 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-30 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-31 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-11-01 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-11-02 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-11-03 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-11-04 | $20.64 | $5,277,372,118 | 19 / 21 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 10 recorded
0 raises · 7 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.