Domino's (DPZ)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-08
$302.35-3.45%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $302.35. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $313 DPZ trades at 18× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $505 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits above the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $315–$480. Note: our $505 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($315–$480). Not investment advice.
$315.00 – $480.00 (median $397.50) · 16 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $17.42/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $397.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $822.52 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $893.17 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $171.00 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $219.85 | 12.5 | 28.69 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $353.78 | 18.3 | 19.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $336.55 | 19.4 | 17.37 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $139.76 | 0.9 | 147.23 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $935.75 | 53.9 | 17.37 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $422.96 | 24.3 | 17.37 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $344.29 | 19.4 | 17.77 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $538.06 | 18.3 | 29.42 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $441.69 | 19.4 | 22.80 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $164.35 | 0.9 | 173.13 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $1228.07 | 53.9 | 22.80 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $555.08 | 24.3 | 22.80 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $711.58 | 18.3 | 38.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $490.95 | 19.4 | 25.34 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $182.68 | 0.9 | 192.44 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $1365.05 | 53.9 | 25.34 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $617.00 | 24.3 | 25.34 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.