Darden Restaurants (DRI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$216.88-0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 24.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 30 industry peers
DRI — earnings in line
Dated 2026-03-19
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 19, 2026, Darden Restaurants, Inc. (the Company) issued a news release entitled “Darden Restaurants Reports Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Results; Declares Quarterly Dividend; And Updates Fiscal 2026 Financial Outlook,” a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In addition, the slide presentation accompanying the Company’s conference call will be posted on the Company’s website. As provided in General I…
Why it matters: This growth rate is part of Darden's fiscal 2027 outlook. A miss could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifSame-restaurant sales growth was below 2.5% for Q3 fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifSame-restaurant sales growth was above 3.5% for Q3 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: CAPEX spending shows Darden's focus on growth. It also shows their efforts to improve operations.
Watch forCAPEX spending stays within the $750M to $775M range for FY 2026.
Also watch forCAPEX spending falls below $750M for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Spending more than this could show problems with costs or growth plans.
Worry ifCapital spending was above $775 million for FY 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending was below $750 million for FY 2026.
Why it matters: The acquisition is expected to add new revenue streams and synergies. Delays could impact growth plans.
Supportive ifChuy's acquisition completed by the end of Darden's fiscal Q2 2027.
Worry ifThe acquisition will finish later than fiscal Q2 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $303 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,005 loss on $10,000 · 20.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Staying within this capex range shows Darden wants to grow while keeping costs down. It affects future restaurant openings and renovations.
Watch forReported capital expenditures fall within the range of $750M to $775M for FY 2026.
Also watch forCapital expenditures were over $775M or under $750M for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on EPS guidance can show financial health. They also show how well the company operates.
Watch forManagement raises EPS guidance to $10.67 or higher for FY 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers EPS guidance below $10.57 for FY 2026.
Why it matters: This EPS figure is part of Darden's growth targets. A miss could indicate profitability issues.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS was below $10.57 for FY 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted diluted EPS was above $10.67 for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Same-restaurant sales growth is important. It helps keep revenue up and investors happy.
Supportive ifSame-restaurant sales growth exceeds 3.5% in Q1 FY 2027.
Worry ifSame-restaurant sales growth falls below 2.5% in Q1 FY 2027.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows strong performance. It also shows good market demand.
Supportive ifTotal sales growth reaches or exceeds 9.5% for FY 2026.
Worry ifTotal sales growth falls below 8% for FY 2026.
Why it matters: This growth range is a key indicator of Darden's ability to maintain momentum. It shows how well the company can attract customers in a competitive market.
Supportive ifSame-restaurant sales grew by 3.5% or more for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifSame-restaurant sales grew less than 2.5% for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: The acquisition could enhance Darden's brand portfolio and drive future growth.
Supportive ifCompletion of the Chuy's acquisition as planned by the end of Q2 FY 2027.
Worry ifThe acquisition will take longer than expected to finish.
Why it matters: Completing the Ruth's acquisition will improve Darden's brand and market reach.
Supportive ifRuth's acquisition is done on time.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to meet closing conditions.