Darden Restaurants (DRI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$228.67-0.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
DRI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-23
above, the Company terminated its prior $1,250,000,000 credit agreement, dated as of October 23, 2023 and amended as of September 16, 2024 (the “Prior Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, and the lenders party to the Prior Credit Agreement. There were no amounts outstanding under the Prior Credit Agreement on October 22, 2026. A brief description of any material relationships between the Company and the administrative agent and the lend…
Why it matters: Darden reported 3.2% comparable-calendar sales growth in Q1 and kept its full-year range. Q2 will show if that pace lasts.
Watch forQ2 same-restaurant sales growth is at least 3.5%, the top of the full-year range.
Also watch forQ2 same-restaurant sales growth is below 2.5%, the bottom of the full-year range.
Why it matters: Darden kept its fiscal 2027 earnings range after Q1. Later results will show if the range still holds.
Watch forDarden keeps its $11.10–$11.35 fiscal 2027 EPS range or raises it at the December 17 earnings report.
Also watch forDarden cuts the fiscal 2027 EPS range below $11.10 at the December 17 earnings report.
Why it matters: Darden set a $15 million pre-tax savings goal from Chuy’s by fiscal 2026 year-end. Reported savings can show whether the deal is delivering.
Supportive ifDarden reports at least $15 million in annual pre-tax Chuy’s savings by fiscal 2026 year-end.
Worry ifDarden reports less than $15 million in annual pre-tax savings, or reports that it missed the goal.
Why it matters: Darden tied its fiscal 2027 plan to 75–80 openings and about $875 million in capital spending. Opening counts will test that plan.
Watch forDarden reports 75 to 80 new restaurant openings for fiscal 2027.
Also watch forDarden reports fewer than 75 new openings for fiscal 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $307 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,512 loss on $10,000 · 15.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.