Darden Restaurants (DRI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$204.47+0.62%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $204.47. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $204 DRI trades at 19× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median, but our blended $181 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $212–$245. Note: our $181 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($212–$245). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $221 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$212.00 – $245.00 (median $230.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-30
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.48/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $230.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $99.74 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $96.98 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $39.39 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $66.01 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $212.71 | 20.1 | 10.60 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $217.05 | 12.6 | 17.54 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $120.62 | 18.4 | 6.56 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $213.91 | 20.1 | 10.66 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $105.02 | 1.0 | 110.22 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $357.14 | 33.5 | 10.66 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $56.98 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $213.72 | 20.0 | 10.66 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $214.17 | 20.1 | 10.67 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $269.79 | 20.1 | 13.44 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $96.69 | 18.4 | 5.26 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $221.28 | 20.1 | 11.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $106.34 | 1.0 | 111.62 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $369.44 | 33.5 | 11.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $221.08 | 20.0 | 11.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $316.11 | 20.1 | 15.75 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $83.44 | 18.4 | 4.54 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $181.19 | 20.1 | 9.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $87.08 | 1.0 | 91.40 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $302.51 | 33.5 | 9.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $181.03 | 20.0 | 9.03 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.