Darden Restaurants (DRI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$216.88-0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Increase adjusted diluted EPS to $10.57-$10.67 for FY 2026: EPS 3.66 vs 10.57-10.67 target.
Darden Restaurants grows revenue about 9.5% yearly. Profit per share rose from $9.55 to $10.64 in fiscal 2026. The company returns cash to shareholders with dividends and buybacks. Management is on track with its growth and capital return goals.
Growth at Olive Garden is weakening, which may hurt profit growth. Margin concerns could pressure earnings. Analysts have cut estimates recently, signaling risks to the outlook.
The stock trades about 13% above our fair value near $180. Analysts expect 7% revenue growth, which is slightly below management's 9.5% target. Our fair value is 22% below the Street median, reflecting a more cautious view.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $10.0 in FY26
Target adjusted diluted net earnings per share from continuing operations in the range of $10.57 to $10.67 for fiscal 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable compounder with a focus on revenue growth. The current thesis is characterized by strong recent financial performance, but the company operates in a challenging sector environment.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a modest expectations gap, indicating that while the stock is not overly expensive, it may not fully reflect potential risks or rewards.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue growth target of approximately 9.5% for FY 2026, although there are mixed signals regarding capital expenditures. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but the company has a history of misses that could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on growth targets. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector leaders could significantly influence DRI's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Darden beat earnings expectations recently. This supports the view on revenue growth. However, a shareholder proposal raises governance scrutiny concerns. This could create reputational risks for the company. The governance issue is not a direct threat to sales.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures fall outside $700M-$800M range in FY26
Keep total capital spending within the range of $750 million to $775 million for fiscal 2026.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently guided capital expenditures between $750 million and $775 million for fiscal 2026. Actual capital spending data is not detailed in the inputs, so progress is consistent with guidance but delivery cannot be fully assessed.
“Total capital spending of $750 to $775 million for fiscal 2026.”
“Total capital spending of $750 to $775 million for fiscal 2026.”
“Total capital spending of $750 to $775 million for fiscal 2026.”
“Total capital spending of $750 to $775 million for fiscal 2026.”
Breaks if: No dividend increase or share repurchase authorization in next 4 quarters
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~7% in FY26
Continue to grow total sales by about 9.5% in fiscal 2026, driven by same-restaurant sales growth and new restaurant openings.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $12.08 billion in 2025-Q4 to $13.21 billion in 2026-Q4, a 9.4% increase, driven by same-restaurant sales growth around 4.5% and new restaurant openings. Management has consistently emphasized this growth target and the trajectory is delivering.
“Total sales increased 9.4% to $13.21 billion driven by same-restaurant sales increase of 4.5% and sales from 43 net new restaurants.”
“Total sales increased 5.9% to $3.3 billion, driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.2% and sales from 31 net new restaurants.”
“Total sales increased 7.3% to $3.1 billion, driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.3% and sales from 30 net new restaurants.”
“Total sales increased 10.4% to $3.0 billion, driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.7% and sales from acquisition of 103 Chuy's restaurants and 22 net new restaurants.”
“Total sales increased 10.6% to $3.3 billion driven by a blended same-restaurant sales increase of 4.6% and sales from acquisition of 103 Chuy's restaurants and 25 net new restaurants.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DRI's performance will depend on its execution and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.