DaVita (DVA)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$183.99+1.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve ~4% annual revenue growth: rev +0.0% vs 3.8%.
DaVita grows revenue about 4% a year as dialysis demand stays steady. Profit margins remain stable with operating income supported by AI tools and center reopenings. Free cash flow improves toward $1.0-$1.25 billion in 2026. The stock trades cheap versus peers with a PE near 20 and strong buyback programs.
Growth could slow if reimbursement rates tighten or regulatory risks rise. Free cash flow may lag the $1 billion target. Rising debt from recent financial obligations could pressure capital allocation. Valuation may stay capped if earnings disappoint.
The price is about 38% below our $375 fair value, reflecting a justified discount. Analysts expect roughly 4% revenue growth, which aligns with our view, but the market undervalues DaVita versus peers.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Operating income declines materially despite AI and center reopenings
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3.8% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance, although there are some mixed signals regarding cash flow and share repurchases.
The market currently prices DVA as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, there is a fragility in execution quality that could impact future performance.
Fundamentals are expected to show steady growth, particularly in operating income, as management has consistently emphasized achieving their guidance. However, there is a mixed outlook for free cash flow, which may create some uncertainty.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on their priorities. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and broader economic indicators, such as job growth, will be critical in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. DaVita maintained its operating income guidance. This supports the company's outlook. However, the stock dropped despite beating sales expectations. This raises concerns about future guidance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: PE rises above 26.6 without earnings growth justification
Overall, DVA's performance and management execution will be key to the multi-year view. Not investment advice.