DaVita (DVA)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$183.99+1.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DVA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, DaVita Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information contained in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchang…
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below median signals potential sector weakness. It could affect DaVita's performance.
Worry ifHealth Care sector revenue growth reports show a decline below the median growth rate.
Less concerning ifHealth Care sector revenue growth remains above the median growth rate.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show confidence in the company and help support the stock price.
Supportive ifCompany repurchases at least 2 million shares in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or a big drop in the number of shares bought back.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key for DaVita's capital allocation plans. A strong Q2 would show progress.
Supportive ifQ2 free cash flow is over $300 million. This shows better cash generation.
Worry ifQ2 free cash flow remains below $200 million, showing ongoing cash flow challenges.
Why it matters: Falling short of the free cash flow target signals challenges in cash generation. This could impact capital allocation plans.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q2 reported below $1 billion.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow for Q2 reported above $1 billion.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $286 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,786 loss on $10,000 · 27.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show management's confidence. This can help the stock price.
Supportive ifDaVita repurchases at least 2 million shares in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3.
Why it matters: Stable treatment volumes would mean recovery from recent drops. This would help revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 U.S. dialysis treatments show no decline compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 U.S. dialysis treatments decline further compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows trust in operations. It shows management cares about financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income guidance stays the same in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income guidance is lower in Q2.
Why it matters: Operating income is key for DaVita's finances. If it drops, there may be problems.
Worry ifOperating income in Q2 is over $480 million. This shows it is stabilizing.
Less concerning ifOperating income in Q2 is below $450 million. This suggests more problems ahead.
Why it matters: Reaching this target would indicate progress towards annual free cash flow goals.
Supportive ifDaVita reports Q2 free cash flow of at least $250 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $200 million in Q2.
Why it matters: This would show that DaVita can keep its income plans for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 operating income was at least $550 million.
Worry ifQ3 operating income was less than $500 million.
Why it matters: Growth here shows DaVita's focus on value-based care and future earnings.
Supportive ifThe patient base for integrated kidney care was over 66,000.
Worry ifThe patient base for integrated kidney care was under 64,000.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal would show strong cash flow and help with spending plans.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $1 billion for 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $900 million for 2026.
Why it matters: This would show strong returns for shareholders and good cash flow.
Supportive ifTotal share buybacks were at least $1 billion for 2026.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks were below $800 million for 2026.