DaVita (DVA)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$194.82+1.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DVA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, DaVita Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information contained in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchang…
Why it matters: The 2026 range starts at $1,000 million. Twelve-month free cash flow through September was $980 million.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is below $1,000 million, or DaVita lowers the $1,000 million floor.
Less concerning ifFull-year free cash flow reaches at least $1,000 million, within or above the current range.
Why it matters: Risk-based care enrollment rose from 64,900 in Q2 to 80,800 in Q3. Further growth would confirm the expansion trend.
Supportive ifIn its next results, DaVita reports over 80,800 patients in risk-based care plans.
Worry ifDaVita reports 80,800 patients or fewer in risk-based care plans.
Why it matters: Normalized treatment growth reached 0.4% in Q3, up from 0.3% in Q2. A further rise would show stronger patient activity.
Supportive ifNormalized non-acquired U.S. treatment growth is above 0.4% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifNormalized non-acquired U.S. treatment growth falls below 0.4% year over year.
Why it matters: In Q3, care costs per treatment rose year over year while revenue per treatment also rose. A faster cost rise could squeeze margins.
Worry ifIn a later quarter, patient care cost growth per treatment is higher than revenue growth per treatment, year over year.
Less concerning ifYear-over-year revenue growth per treatment matches or exceeds patient care cost growth per treatment.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $300 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,786 loss on $10,000 · 27.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.