Ecolab (ECL)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$279.28+0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve adjusted diluted EPS of about $8.53 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance 8.05-8.25 vs target 8.43.
Ecolab grows earnings about 12% to 15% in 2026. Quarterly EPS targets near $2.07 are achievable. The company benefits from strong demand in water treatment and AI data center cooling. Share buybacks and internal promotions support execution.
Ecolab struggles to meet its EPS growth target of 12% to 15%. Quarterly EPS results remain mixed and below expectations. Rising costs or weak demand could pressure margins and slow growth.
The market expects about 10% revenue growth and prices shares roughly 31% above our valuation model. Our view is more cautious on growth and valuation compared to the Street's higher price targets.
Breaks if: significant reduction or suspension of share buybacks in 2026
Breaks if: adjusted diluted EPS falls below $8.43 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
ECL represents a durable compounder with a focus on organic sales growth and earnings per share (EPS) expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, although confidence has shifted from high to medium.
The market currently prices ECL at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting a durable premium. There is a modest expectations gap, suggesting that investors are anticipating continued strong performance.
Management is on track with priorities to drive organic sales growth and expand EPS. Recent financial results show strong sales growth and EPS increases, but there is a moderate risk of missing future targets, given the company's recent history of misses.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on growth targets. Key factors include inflation trends and the performance of sector peers, which could influence ECL's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Ecolab raised its 2026 profit forecast after strong quarterly EPS growth. However, EPS estimates were cut, which could hinder growth objectives. This mixed news reflects both positive and negative pressures on the company's outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Ecolab aims to maintain its EPS growth trajectory, targeting a 12% to 15% increase for 2026.
Breaks if: quarterly EPS falls below $2.02 in Q2 2026
Breaks if: revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next 12 months
Ecolab aims to maintain its EPS growth trajectory, targeting a 12% to 15% increase for 2026.
ECL's fundamentals are solid, but the medium confidence level suggests a cautious outlook. Not investment advice.