Ecolab (ECL)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$279.28+0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ECL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
ECL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-28
is furnished and attached as Exhibit (99.1) and (ii) Supplemental Data to be used in connection with the conference call to be held discussing the first quarter results is furnished and attached as Exhibit (99.2), each of which is incorporated by reference herein. Ecolab also will publish the attached exhibits on its website located at www.ecolab.com. Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward Looking Information . Statements contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including statements con…
Why it matters: Reaching this target is key for cost control and profit. It shows management's focus on efficiency.
Supportive ifEcolab claims it has met or passed the $325M savings goal.
Worry ifSavings are below $325M. This shows challenges in managing costs.
Why it matters: Hitting EPS guidance shows Ecolab can keep growing. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 EPS reported between $2.02 and $2.12.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS falls below $2.02.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would enhance Ecolab's capabilities in the high-tech cooling market. It could boost sales growth.
Supportive ifAcquisition of CoolIT Systems closes as planned in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRegulators are delaying or blocking the purchase of CoolIT Systems.
Why it matters: Better margins show Ecolab is managing costs well. This shows they can handle commodity pressures.
Supportive ifThe adjusted operating income margin goes up by at least 50 bps in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted operating income margin goes down or stays the same.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,009 loss on $10,000 · 20.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The energy surcharge helps cover rising costs. Its success shows how Ecolab adapts to market changes.
Watch forPricing increases by 5% to 6% in the second half of the year.
Also watch forPricing does not increase or declines in the second half of the year.
Why it matters: Rising commodity costs could hurt margins. We will see if Ecolab can control costs.
Worry ifCommodity costs increase high single digits in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCommodity costs stabilize or decrease in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Improved revenue growth would signal recovery in Ecolab's performance. This is vital for long-term growth.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 1% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth remains below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher commodity costs could hurt margins and affect pricing. We need to watch this.
Worry ifCommodity costs increase by more than high single digits, impacting gross margins.
Less concerning ifIf commodity costs stay stable or rise less than high single digits, margins may stay strong.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for capital allocation and growth. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations was positive. It was negative $769.2M in 2025-Q4.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative.
Why it matters: More share buybacks would show confidence in Ecolab's finances and spending plans.
Supportive ifA new share buyback program or continuing the current one is announced.
Worry ifNo new share buyback announcements or a reduction in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Energy surcharges will show how well Ecolab handles rising costs.
Watch forGross margins stabilize or improve in the next quarter due to energy surcharges.
Also watch forGross margins fall more, even with energy surcharges.
Why it matters: A good buyback can raise stock price. It shows management believes in the company.
Supportive ifStock price increases after the announcement of the $1.2 billion share buyback.
Worry ifStock price goes down even after the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Life Sciences helps Ecolab's sales and pricing.
Supportive ifLife Sciences organic sales growth above 11% in Q2.
Worry ifLife Sciences organic sales growth is below 8%. This shows possible weakness.
Why it matters: This segment is a key growth driver. Strong performance here would signal robust demand for Ecolab's services in high-tech industries.
Supportive ifOrganic sales growth in Global High-Tech exceeds 25% year over year.
Worry ifGrowth in Global High-Tech is below 20%. This suggests weak demand.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show management's confidence in the stock. This can help share price.
Supportive ifEcolab buys back over 1 million shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifIf share repurchases are below 1 million shares, it may show caution in spending.
Why it matters: Stable organic sales growth shows Ecolab can control costs. It also helps increase revenue.
Supportive ifOrganic sales growth reported above 5% for Q3.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth reported below 5% for Q3.